1 - 5 stud variance question

[Lovesantiques]

I've been playing the 1/5/10 game at Ballys, and have noticed a pattern that I can't explain. Hopefully someone here can help me out.

Within the first 3 or 4 hours, I can be up by anywhere from 70 - 130 dollars. Never more, sometimes less. Sometimes I'm down. Then, the cards seem to turn and I end up either back down to where I started, or even lower. Then my stack goes back up again, but never past the previous high point.

My sessions have been in the 9 - 12 hour range, and I've played 21 of them - which may not be enough of a sample to draw conclusions from, I realize. Overall, I'm up some $650, so I must be doing something right - I hope....

I'm wondering what "normal" variance is in a 1/5/10 (1 - 10 can be bet on the last card) and if perhaps my expectations are wrong. Or if I'm doing something wrong. I can have swings in a session of $200 or more in each direction - up a hundred from my starting stack, then down a hundred from my starting stack for example. Or down and then up.

I don't know if this is normal - or extreme - and how to adjust my attitude in either case.

And why is it that for any given session I'm never up more than $130 - when gains of much more than that occur within sessions? Frustrating.....

Reality check, please! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Thank you.

Lee

[cmurl904]

As you already know, stud (especially low limit) has more short-term variance than hold 'em. I've never played the stud game at Bally's, but I'm assuming that the .50 ante has something to do with it. Yes it promotes looser play on third street, but if you're not catching cards/winning decent pots I'd assume it eats at your chip stack.

I think that stud games nowadays (post "poker boom") are very dependent upon the players at the tables. I don't care how old guys are if they're fish. I don't see many fish playing stud anymore. Most (not all) of these old timers actually have a clue how to play stud. It's frustrating to see a lot of fish that used to play stud playing $2/4 & 3/6 hold 'em now. Those were the guys that really used to juice up the stud games. I play $5/10 stud at the Trop, and every now and then you get a few fish there. But it's less and less now. I've heard that the $1/5 games at Harrah's (especially on weekends) are pretty good/loose games.

What's the average game at Bally's like (# of tables a day, autoshufflers ?, type of players, etc.) ?

[Poker CPA]

Reality check, please!

So you've played about 210 hours and won $630 (less parking, tolls and gas). About 2~3 dollars an hour. You need to move up.

[Lovesantiques]

Yes, I do need to move up. Trying the 1/2 no limit games, and will be trying the 5/10 stud game over at the Taj. I see from the post above that the Trop also has that, so I may try there as well. Darn few stud games in Atlantic City, unfortunately. But at least there are some. :-)

Bally's has 1 or 2 stud tables going starting at noon. Usually one table after about 5 or 6 pm. They use autoshufflers (which jam often enough to make me wonder why).

Players range from good to terrible. Which can be frustrating - when I'm watching people repeatedly call down hands with nothing and I don't have any cards to get their chips with......

I was just wondering if a high enough return can be generated to make a 1/5/10 game seriously profitable.

Lee

[Poker CPA]

"seriously profitable"

No way. Visit all the locations in AC and get to know the regulars. Watch their reactions when new players come into the cardroom. Their eyes and subsequent actions reveal much about this new player. Make notes about the chumps, because these players provide the serious profit. Get to know them and always remember, Trust No One in AC.

[cmurl904]

I'd recommend the 5/10 at the Trop over Taj. Trop doesn't have autoshufflers (Taj does), and isn't as nice as the Taj (after the upgrades). But, Trop's stud regulars aren't that good IMHO. Also, there's times you'll get in a game with some Asian gambler-types, or aggressive hold 'em players waiting for a seat. They have at least 1 game going after 11AM with a list, sometimes 2 on weekends. The games have been tight lately, but when they're good they're profitable.

The last few times I played at the Taj I didn't see any fish, zero. Almost every player had a clue how to play stud. The games were actually boring, and I LOVE playing stud. I felt like I was intruding on someone's home game. Everytime I had a hand and bet, everyone folded. They do have two games going everyday after 11AM-noon, and are pretty solid all night. The stud games break up a little later at the Taj, more players.

To answer your original question, I don't think that the 1/5/10 game at Bally's can be seriously profitable. The only way it could be is if the game/room had A LOT of fish/clueless types. Bally's is also a smaller/slower poker room, which attracts a lot of regulars and bus trippers.
Now, if that same game was spread at the Borgata, and attracted some casual and younger stud players, I think it would be a different story.

Stud is still hanging on in AC, mostly at the Taj, Trop, Bally's, and Harrah's. Borgata only spreads high limit stud nowadays.

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see many fish playing stud anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you're saying, but I personally had to laugh at that one. Come to Borg or Taj sometime lol. CM, have you played 10-20 stud at Taj? It's very soft - as is 20-40 (and often higher limits as well, though the games play differently). In fact, I'm fairly sure that 10-20 at Taj is softer than 5-10.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Lee,

There are not darn few stud games in AC! There are few low limit stud games (besides 5-10 at Taj), but Taj has MANY tables of 10-20 and 20-40, and they are almost all quite good. 10-20 plays very passively and is easy. It is true that there isn't as gradual a progression in limits so it may feel like a big jump, but I would encourage you to take a shot at 10-20 assuming you are financially comfortable with the limits (and mentally of course). $500 is plenty for a solid shot at it.

Jeff

[Andy B]

You may not play as well towards the end of a long session as you do at the beginning of one. I've found that to be the case for myself lately. If AC is a long drive for you, short sessions may not seem attractive, though.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
Within the first 3 or 4 hours, I can be up by anywhere from 70 - 130 dollars. Never more, sometimes less. Sometimes I'm down. Then, the cards seem to turn and I end up either back down to where I started, or even lower. Then my stack goes back up again, but never past the previous high point.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mental effort uses more calories per hour than ditch digging - the time frame makes me suspicious of your blood-sugar and ability to concentrate. Take a break every three hours, eat a protein/carbo mix (low fat - not pizza for the luvva mike) and drink tea instead of coffee, cola, red bull or any of that. The caffiene in tea is longer lasting, metabolizes more slowly. Small regular meals are the key. Walk around - breathe.

Exercise regularly if you are not, raises metaboloism makes it easier to break down fat into sugar when you need it, like after 2-3 hours at the table.

Sounds like your game is fine....when you are on top of it. Poker is a sport no matter what some say - your brain is a physical thing - poker is a "brain marathon." When you play a sport you don't just study the playbook, you make sure your body can do what you ask of it. And if you are eating anything with sugar or corn syrup in it when you play or before you play - then you need to read a few articles or books on nutrition.

gl