Second Sino-Japanese War

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Link to Klaxon (diving horn) sound.

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I think you have to put this in the context of the grand stratigic ambitions of Japan. The Emperor was essentially trying to immitate the British Empire model. That is, he wanted a "co-prosperity shpere."

Basically conquer by force or colonization all the resources needed to drive an industrial economy and export them back to the home island. Just like the British, if this had been left unchecked by another power, it would have eventually imploded both for social and for economic reasons.

You have to understand also that the oil embargo put a serious hurting on the Japanese advance. The motivation behind Pearl Harbor was to destroy the US ability to intervene militarily in the Pacific. That failed. Yamamoto made several severe tactical and one major strategic error.
I have gamed out scenarios where I was able to "win" WWII in the Pacific as the Japanese using several alternative strategies.

I agree with posters below who say that Roosevelt would have found a way of provoking the Japanese into military action against the US. He was that shrewd. Unfortunately for them, the Japanese were also proud enough to let themselves be provoked.

In a way, though, the Japanese were kind of boxed into attacking the US. I don't know they could have avoided dragging the US into the fight given the objectives of the grand strategy.

[Exsubmariner]

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So what I am asking is; what if Japan never instigated USA?

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The Japanese offensive would have bogged down and the war would have been an endless war of attrition. Japan's advantages were having armor (though it was crappy armor) and complete control of the seas. This allowed Japan to take the plains and coastal areas. But the deeper they went into China the more problems they had keeping their troops supplied. Chinese partisans were a huge nuisance. When Japan's oil ran out because of the oil embargo (UK, USA, Netherlands) then Japan would have lost its advantage with regard to having armored forces.

China had an overwhelming reserve of mnapower. In a war of attrition, Japan is forced to make peace. At best Japan might be able to create another puppet state in Shanxi. Also keep in mind that the Chinese Communist were NOT using their full armies against Japan. Their strategy was to let the Nationalists do the heavy lifting and once Japan gave up....resume the civil war against the nationalist that had been bled white against the Japanese. The communists were getting their ass kicked by the Nationalists. The Marco Polo Bridge inicident is what saved them. Quite a few historians believe it was the Communists the attacked the Japanese at the Marco Polo bridge to start this war. And I agree with these historians as well. Chiang Kai-Shek and Japan were tricked into making war with each other.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Polo_Bridge_Incident

If Japan were smart, they would have attacked the Netherlands/UK instead of the USA. They could have seized the Dutch oil and the Brits would have gotten their asses kicked trying to fight both the German and Japanese Navy. The isolationist USA would NOT have declared war on Japan for doing this.

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The politically prudent thing to do would be to divide up the country with the communists. The nationalists would have been stuck in the middle and hammered into oblivion. The Japanese would get to keep the cost and exploit the resources they wanted.

As for attacking the Dutch and UK, I think FDR would have lend/leased the entire Pacific fleet to Britain complete with crews for the ships.