s915 and Brocathmel

[wackjob]

s915 is a insanely hot_streak winner over about 3K hands I have on him, but against me, hes getting crushed. in general hes running like 8.5BB/100 right now. i think against poor opponents a guy like this can do well, against anyone decent, he will get owned.

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Was that guy called fuktan or something?


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fuktan = PoetMagician

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kcht347 had the same property of playing more hands the worse position got, I think.

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kcht347 = Brocathmel

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Anyway it does indeed smack of having a large open-raising range which is unchanged as you move around the table. But as joker says, the question is, is it a good idea?

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Intuitively, of course not. You'd think it has to have a profound Shania effect for this type of player to win like he does. Of course, it is a high variance style so a survivorship bias is definitely possible when looking at Brocathmel/s915 (if not probable).

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we have these threads all the time. from derb to poet to broc. now s915. you know we have never really concluded anything worthwhile so im not sure if you are adding anything new. i think discussing it has potential to be interesting and worthwhile but weve never made much headway.

at this point i think it will be even harder to analyze these alternative (and relatively extreme) styles since we are exposed far fewer available hands than in the party days.

however, i suppose old dbs exist with a ton of hands on these guys and thats where to start. i think educated speculation has been found to be worthless at this point. if we really want to figure out the "Secret" we need to accumulate hands and data and get down to the nitty gritty and find a way to analyze where the profit actually comes from.

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I agree.

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fwiw i was a decent winner vs poet and broc and kingkevin.

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So was I and many other 2+2ers I'm sure. With that said, I'd bet those guys crushed the average (mediocre/bad) player to a much greater degree than us.

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[Victor]

"I'd bet those guys crushed the average (mediocre/bad) player to a much greater degree than us."

well, an interesting exercise would be to profile the guys broc/poet/s915 are crushing.

[Trix]

Poet atleast did have a bigger openraise range on the button than utg, but not much difference from utg-mp.

I think it may be posible that he actually mixed up his play, meaning that even when he often opens Ax utg, it´s not like automatic for him, but I could be wrong.
Also think he might have paid more attenction than the average multi tabling tag, meaning his reads are better.

Think people may have overplayed vs him postflop in some spots and might also have defended their blinds or position incorrectly.

The guy definatly did some stuff that could look like clear -EV, but who doesn´t once in a while.

Had 100Kish hands on him, but can only find a db with like 45K. Anyway, he openraised a ton from the sb, probably alot more than most of us.
I have him at -0.03 in the sb, which is like extremely good, but could easily be variance.
He only folds the bb to steals 18%, but he doesn´t do too well in that spot.

I dont really think he got too far out line preflop when it looked like someone else wanted the pot unless he was in a blind.

He folded the sb 78% to steals btw. 3betting most of the time he played, but calling sometimes.

It doesn´t look like he is making that much more outside the blinds than other tags, but not sure.

However, it may cause standard tags to open less from LP when he is in the blinds, which means, he will get to play blind vs blind, where he can recoup alot of his losses.

Think he would get crushed in a game where people adjusted correctly vs his EP opens, so not really sure if it´s worth trying to copy his style if your goal is to win at high stakes.

I´d like to discuss sb play if you want to make a thread about that as I feel it´s the only preflop area in limit where I can improve alot.

[kiddo]

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Also think he might have paid more attenction than the average multi tabling tag, meaning his reads are better.


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This is what separates the great players from the good. If u remember the hands played last 30 minutes and are good at using this, then it can make up for a ton of pokertheory never read or understood.

Of course some of us are like robots, playing perfect all the time, but most of us adapt to whats going on right now and are very focused sometimes and very unfocused other times. If the other player understands this, he can win a lot.

[redbeard]

here are the numbers i have on s915 in my current database:

15k hands. overall 54/44 2.6 AF. att to steal: 73.4; went to showdown: 42%; bb/100 = 3.82.

positional stats:
button vpip 57%; pfr 55%; raise first in 42%
cut off vpip 43%; pfr 43%; raise first in 33%
hijack vpip 41%; pfr 40%; raise first in 36%
utg vpip 40%; pfr 40%; raise first in 40%
bb vpip 64%; pfr 31%
sb vpip 66%; pfr 54%; raise first in 32% (this seems way low to me but maybe he plays me different)

i've got another 10k hands on him in another data base and he is an overall winner of 2.5bb/100 across 25k hands. now i'm fully aware of fluctuations and that the long run is much longer than most people on 2p2 think, but i wonder how long someone like this can run well and what is pushing the bounds of mathematical reality. also noteworthy on s915 is that he rarely ever strays up to 30/60. he is almost exclusively at 15/30 and 10/20 player.

[redbeard]

in regards to kiddo's comments: s915 does a good job mixing up how he plays things and i think you are correct his attention to hands played within the last 30 minutes allows him to take advantage of players. at one point, he donked into me on the flop heads up when i was the pfr or pf3 i think 5 times in a row. i had hands strong enough to call him down and lost the first three to top pair on the flop. he did it twice more with zero as i called him down on the 4th hand and won and waited until the river to raise him on the 5th where he folded. then almost immediately he shifted to check raising the heck out of me on the flop. as out of line as his pre flop play would be his post flop play is pretty solid and i don't see him spew very often. the only time he got out of line he had kk with the king of spades and i floped an ace high spade flush. i donked the turn and he raised. i three bet and he capped. the river brought another spade and i cr the river and he just called. but that was about the only time i've seen him go overboard.

[redbeard]

While we are at it, David Chiu is another player that perplexes me as to how he wins. He is a pro that is listed in red on the tables at Full Tilt. I only have 5k hands on him but his numbers are 53/26; wtsd 41% and ats of 52%. I have him as up 10bb/100 over those 5k hands. Just like s915 he plays well post flop and mixes up well how he plays hands. That notwithstanding, it is hard to believe he could sustain a long run profit with those preflop numbers.

[DeathDonkey]

I would assume Chiu is bored at those stakes and playing fishy. It's not a strategy for him so much as he gets quickly bored and raises too much preflop, then uses his decent postflop play to figure things out. I haven't played with him so could be wrong but he's probably just running sick hot over that sample. Also s915's 54/44 is much hotter than Chui's 53/26. s915 plays on stars? I have no idea who you all are talking about.

-DeathDonkey

-DeathDonkey