NL200: set vs regulars river push

[Falc]

UTG+1 is a regular 15/5/1.5 after many hands. He plays NL1k also if that matters. We've tangled a bit on a few tables, I've stacked him once with a set vs his AK allin on the flop. I've never seen him limp AA or JJ (altho I've only seen him show down those hands about 10-15 times togehter). He limp/calls alot of my raises with pretty bad hands, like KQ and such. Do I call the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($262.30)
UTG+1 ($426.02)
MP1 ($196)
MP2 ($32)
CO ($248.40)
Button ($175.50)
SB ($179.45)
Hero ($256.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG+1 calls $5, SB folds.

Turn: ($16) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, UTG+1 calls $12.

River: ($40) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28</font>, UTG+1 calls $407.02 (All-In), Hero?

[AljdrA]

QTd?
Dosn't he have AJ 80% of the time?

[Jurrr]

I will add for the record although we already discussed this privately, Falc.

This regular is enough of a moron that I think he often plays 88 and 44 the same way. Axs 2 pr is possible but not likely. AA is a possibility as is JJ but he will usually raise both preflop I think (I have no instances of limping those hands EP in my DB). I have no instances of him limp-raising preflop and the only time he had JJ he 3bet with it.

Straights... I don't see T7 limping UTG+1 really so QT is the only one. Peeling one off on the flop with a gutter I can envision, but also one on the turn? And limping that hand UTG+1 doesn't seem to be so likely.

I think he would want to stack off with 88 at least and maybe 44/2 pr as well so I'd call as most of the hands that beat us are unlikely. I'd probably fold if the river were a diamond and got us this action (I'd be inclined to check-call then).

So cliff notes - I call.

[SretiCentV]

You can't get away from this unless you are certain that he calls flop and turn bets with an inside straight draw. IMO theres no way to be certain enough of that to discard an underset or 2 pair

[RiverMustelid]

I think I know who this player is, if they play $1k with a 50% stack.

I have seen them limp both AA and JJ from early position. It is tough, but I don't see 88 or 44 not pushing earlier. I think a 2 pair push is unlikely but not 100% impossible. It would rate as an excellent fold if you were disciplined enough to make it IMO.

[Javanewt]

I would never be disciplined enough to make this fold.

[disko]

me neither, im going bust here, but maybe thats why i dont play nl200 anymore lol. although examining it, it would be an unusual bet for 2 pair. surely has to be a set of some sort. i'm putting it all in though.

[capodu]

This is just a cooler, there is no way to fold the 99 but if I think I know who he is, he has JJ 80% and AA 20% of the time this happends, and remeber the good regulars arnt going to push allin on the river like that unless they can beat a lot of hands.

[futuredoc85]

dont fold here. if he can have AA and JJ after PF then he can have 88/44 on the river

[capodu]

[ QUOTE ]
dont fold here. if he can have AA and JJ after PF then he can have 88/44 on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

ya but he wont play floped sets like this at all, but overpairs he would