#61
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Re: Apathy style theory question - raise or fold to donkbet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm saying that raising *should be* less -EV than folding. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Folding can't have a negative expectation. Ever. The EV of folding is always zero. [/ QUOTE ] Unless you have money invested already, which you obviously do already. So your ev of folding is -4.5BB [/ QUOTE ] This is the sunken cost fallacy. If we assume that a bet here is EV, it is because we win less than we bet. Not because we win less than what we bet + what's in the pot. Again, the EV of folding is always 0. This is by definition less than what may already be in the pot, but that doesn't make it -EV. When you give a decision an EV label, you are referring to the decision point -- i.e. what would you do if someone plopped you in the chair at this point of time. What you are saying is that raising pre-flop and then folding every flop is -EV, but that's not what's being discussed. |
#62
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Re: Apathy style theory question - raise or fold to donkbet?
I laise
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