Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 06-08-2006, 01:36 PM
Silent A Silent A is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: out of the grid
Posts: 2,838
Default The money in 2 evelopes \"paradox\"

I don't know if this has been discussed here before.

here's the paradox ...

Suppose you're given 2 envelopes with money in them and you are told that one contains twice as much as the other (let's say they're cheques and therefore weight is not an issue). You pick one and open it up to reveal a $100 cheque. You are now offered the opportunity to switch envelopes.

Is switching +EV?

Argument 1: It's +EV to switch. You had a 50/50 chance of picking the high or low envelope so there's a 50% chance that the other envelope is the high and a 50% chance it's the low. Therefore, EV of switch = 0.5*(+100) + 0.5*(-50) = +25.

Argument 2: It's EV neutral. If always switching was a +EV strategy then it would be more profitable to choose envelope A first and then switch to B then to just choose envelope B and not switch.

Who's right?
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:54 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.