***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[DesertCat]

rwperu,

I am probably being too hard on DY, I actually think he'll be a decent Major leaguer, I'm just real skeptical of him being a superstar. And I probably over rated his horrible time in CF, and some hearsay that his throws were constantly off line.

But you are ignoring some tremendous issues. DY has never hit for power in AAA or the majors yet, so its hard to say he has that tool. He also has a horrible OBP, which trumps BA, so saying he hits for average is true, but not useful. He should have the hitting for average tool deducted because he fails at the plate discipline tool. This also shows how lame the scouts five tools list is when it ignores more important metrics.

But the most important point I made was service time. DY appears to be the type that is going to need a couple more years before he can be a plus contributer. That means he'll be in arb or FA at the wrong time for the Twins.

Garza has similar service time, but strikes me as an average to above average starter (he's been unlucky on BABIP) right now. That's worth, what, $9m a year to TB, until arb drives his salary closer to market. Young may be worth nothing the next two years.

The Twins can still do well if he develops, my understanding is they are stocked with young pitching. They need position players. That's why trades happen

Go back to your list and find the guys who struggled two years in a row at the upper minors and majors. It happens even to guys who turn out to be solid MLB players. But its a big clue that its unlikely the player will become a star.

[DesertCat]

And you can add BJ Upton to your list. He stank in 2006 and had a big year this year, so he's an example of a guy who had one bad year, but kept improving and figured out how to hit at the MLB level.

I thought his little brother was over-rated after a 700 OPS at low A (age 18). But he put up 900s in A and AA at age 19, and that's an amazing progression in one year, even if he struggled offensively and defensively in the Majors in the second half of the year. Now I think he's a huge prospect, but if he doesn't improve next year I will start to wonder if he will fulfill all my expectations even though he'll still be 20.

[Vyse]

upton had a built-in excuse: staying in the minors too long and getting "bored." plus he played / plays a premium position. if young played 2B or something then i'd be a lot less hard on him.

btw, average / above average starter = worth way more than $9m a year.

[SL__72]

[ QUOTE ]

btw, average / above average starter = worth way more than $9m a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean on the FA market?

[Vyse]

... i mean worth in value. attach $ to that value and it's > than 9m

[SL__72]

My point was just that it depends on how you look at it. From a revenue standpoint I don't think your statement is true. From a FA $ standpoint it is easily true.

[Vyse]

Winning drives revenue. Winning has dollar values attached to it. These dollar values can be attached to the values of players.