Can Somebody Quantify this Bad Run?

[mpethybridge]

I just started 8-tabling--previously, i usually only played 4 tables. Unfortunately, 8 tabling has coincided with a bad run of all ins. I am mainly interested in finding out how bad this run is, because, honestly, if this sort of thing happens with any frequency, I don't think I can emotionally tolerate 8 tables. I am not sure how this can be quantified, but if anybody can help I would appreciate it.

This is every hand I have been in during the last 3600 hands where either I or my opponent was all in with cards to come. It is two days of play on 8 tables. Many of these are against short stacks, though I don't imagine that affects the math.

All in on flop, opp. has 2 outs, hits.
All in on flop, opp. has 3 outs, hits.
All in preflop, AQs v. AQs, opp hits his flush.
All in on flop, opp. has 11 outs, hits.
All in preflop, my AA holds up against KK and AQo
All in preflop, my AK v. KJ, opp. wins.
All in preflop, my JJ v. AQ, opp. wins.
All in on flop, opp. has 2 outs, I win.
All in preflop, my AK v. JJ, opp wins.
All in on flop, opp. has 12 outs, hits.
All in on flop, I have 2 outs, opp. wins.
All in on flop, opp. has 2 outs, wins.

[pococurante]

Can you get PokerEV, and post your luck graph? I'd be interested in seeing it.

I can't provide any exact results here... for instance an opponent might have 6 outs, but I don't know if there are cards that could come that would have him drawing dead, etc. The software could provide detailed info.

Out of boredom I'll throw together some semi accurate opponent percentages here...

9, 13.5, 7, 48, 25, 25, 48, 9, 52, 52, 91, 9.

Opponent's average chance to win: 32.37%.

Just to come up with some rough numbers, say you were averaging 67.5% to win all of these hands. You expect to win 8/12 hands, instead you won 2/12.

sqrt{(12*0.675*0.325)}
sqrt(2.63)
standard deviation = 1.62
expected wins = 8.1
actual wins = 2
deviations = 3.76

These numbers are definitely not exact, but according to this you're about 1 in 1000 to run that bad. So yeah, your luck was pretty terrible.

[mpethybridge]

I actually had Poker EV on my laptop, where I usually play. I recently snapped my laptop over my knee after the 5th or 6th bad beat in a row. This bad run of cards actually dates back to my last 25 or so all ins, but I can't document the first 10 or so that are on the broken computer. But just as a for instance, I had back to back top sets in set over set confrontations that lost to rivered quads. The second one was when I broke the computer.

You would not like to have seen my luck graph, however. in 230,000 hands it has stayed consistently below EV. There are 2 spots on my graphs, totaling maybe 16,000 hands, where my all in luck has matched EV. It's hard to tell because of the 40,000 hand limit.

[BigBiceps]

What server was this on?

Doesn't seem to bad to me, I have had alot worse.

You can only quantify when you analyze everys single allin and with a sample size of 12 allins you will not be able to determine much of anything.

[pococurante]

While 12 hands is a small sample size, it's still enough to be significant. Obviously, it's normal to be a couple of wins away from the expected number. But it is statistically significant when you only win 2 out of 12.

Suppose you were rolling a die repeatedly, and 10 times out of 12 you rolled either a 1 or a 2. It's pretty damn unusual, and it would make most people suspect it was rigged.