Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[Yowserrrs]

Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. How is it a team as atrocious as SF (much much worse than Miami), has 3 wins, and the Dolphins none? Luck. FO did an interesting article on Miami, and how unlucky they've been this season. 6 games by a FG, and they've had the 5th hardest schedule so far this season. This team is certainly worse without Brown, Green or Chambers, but they're not THAT bad.

here's the article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3124222

[Yowserrrs]

your own article invalidates your argument. Since 1943, 18 teams have started out 0-11. assume 25 teams per year over 60 = 1500 seasons....that equates to a 1.2% chance NOT a 0.1% chance, about 12x difference...obv there are some flaws with this but not enough to justify a 1/1000 chance of Miami being where it is.

[kyro]

I don't understand what you're saying. How on earth does history show that Miami isn't running god awful?

[Yowserrrs]

im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Because Miami is significantly better than your average 0-11 team.

[kyro]

And anyways, I have no idea what the odds of Miami being 0-11 is. It was your number and I was just saying that yes, Miami has run real bad, to an extent we haven't seen before. It might be 1/1000, it might be 1/500, it might be 1/3000. I haven't run any numbers yet.

[Post-Oak]

Wow.

I'm sorry to be rude, but through sheer cluelessness you have really muddied the waters in this thread. I'll try to address your points one by one.

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Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

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It is absurd to say that they should be giving me odds. Miami is a favorite this Sunday at home against the Jets. Pinnacle has the moneyline as +110/-120 right now, which means the market has Miami as 53.4% to win the game.

[ QUOTE ]

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.


[/ QUOTE ]

You say that they play 3 junk teams in a row, two at home, and then go on to say their best chance is against NE? I don't even know how to address this.

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Further Cin is not a junk team and there must be validity to my point as I read the thread after I posted and now I'm seeing other posts indicating other sites offering far better prices.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are getting confused by reading old posts. At the top of each post, you can see the date and time the post was made. The original post was made on 11/10 and those responses are from 11/11. Furthermore, there were NOT other sites offering better prices. If you go back and read the thread, you will see that those posters were comparing apples to oranges. They were comparing the Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop I found on 5Dimes, to a NO TEAM TO GO 0-16 team prop found on WSEX. The problem was that the Rams were also winless at that time (more on that later), so they were two entirely different props.


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In sum -700 is ridiculous, -300-400 is my sweet spot, -500 prob true odds.


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The line is not -700. Again, you are reading a post made on November 10th. The line when I wrote my newest post was -525.

[ QUOTE ]

Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?


[/ QUOTE ]

What are the chances that the 2007 St. Louis Rams would lose their first 8 games, and then win their next two? Using your logic, something like this would never be expected to happen.

Also, the math I did was very straightforward. If you think the Dolphins have a much smaller chance of winning those games, then you should be betting against them every week. For example, Las Vegas has Miami as favored to win this week. If you think this line is ridiculous, then I understand you don't agree with my conclusions, and you must be unloading on the Jets. I have no problem with that viewpoint.

[kyro]

I just did some very rough numbers and figured that Miami was 99.32% to win at least one game since the beginning of the season. That's running bad.

[bylanta]

so I realize everyone here is saying get on the mia to lose side, but long ago I took a shot at the other side. Got it 13-1, and now I am hoping for some hedging? advice.