Massive Draw, Way Ahead On The Flop

[GeeBeeQED]

Ok,I put myself in the wringer for those that want to turn the handle. ;-)

I said I would post tonight my thoughts on having a massive draw on the flop and how I think they are best played. Generally I apply similar thinking with adjustments for hand strength to most of my monster made flopped hands/draws. (by monster draw I mean straight flush draw for example) I adjust this for vunerabilities to certain hands and I'll sometimes play it totally different, especially if I've seen a player in a similar spot before and they've passed the test or I've been successful with this play and my villian was at the table when it took place. Unfortunately opportunities to practice these skills come along too infrequently. I'm really playing against how I think many players think and what they think I am thinking so it's 3rd level strategy.

Setup is deep stacks ($400), 1-3 cash game, presumed middle skill to thoughtful or tough opponents. Also imporant is your opponents need to have some respect for your game.

An example hand would be, called a $12 preflop raise in position preflop with JTs hearts. 3 villians see the flop with me.

Flop comes KhQh7s

My first thoughts about a straight flush draw is that I'm willing to get all in here if I am forced but my experience has taught me to play this hand after the flop. Avoid going busto with it if possible. I want to play the hand out.. I can presume my preflop raiser has hit overpair, top pair top kicker or a set with a flop like this. I really want him to have a set. I want to build the pot so I can get the bettor to commit by the river if I hit but pevent him from causing me to commit all my chips to this draw too early. And I want to represent a hand different from what I hold.

There was a time when if it was raised in front of me, I'd move in (or make a very large bet) with a hand like this if I felt I had a caller. And certainly that is +EV. However, having gone busto with the best of it 2 cards to go several times I quickly learned I can be more assured of getting the chips in and called ahead if I take it a little more slowly. Also, if the turn comes unfavorable and my opponent moves in, I can make a laydown if I want to. (mostly other hands with fewer but many outs) Not every +EV play is the best play.

I expect my opponent to put in cont or pot size bet here. Lets say he does as I expect and bets $30. It's fold fold to me. For most opponents, I think the right thing to do here is to raise him his bet back. If he's got nothing, he's folding or floating. If he's hit his set or top pair, the vast majority of players will think like this. “I've got one on the line, I've got top pair good kicker (or I've hit my set).” He's thinking that I've hit top pair also with a questionable kicker or second pair, he's not sure but he probably bet with a hand or has a set so he still feels like he is ahead. He does not want to waste this opportunity to take down a big stack. He's deciding to be a pig, pigs get slaughtered. He's going to just call my bet here, let me see one card and hope a heart 10 or J does not come off. His worry about the draws are minor. Any straight or flush card here looks like a runner runner draw. My raise represents to most players a probe or feeler with second pair, it looks like I have a hand and want to see where I'm at. Occasionaly a player will see the small bet as a suck-bet bluff and repop you on the spot. He's convinced I wouldn't raise him here on a draw, not a bet this size. Why would a player do that here? Giving me monster draw I really have (I'm way ahead of him but can't beat a bluff yet) would be like giving a player quads when you've got a full, you just can't do it. He won't do it.

His bet ($30) and my raise to $60 followed by his trap call gets the pot to $156. Our stacks are at about 328 each.

His plan is to see what comes off, if the flush misses he wants to check raise me. He's quite sure I'm bluffing or betting the turn because his call has showed weakness which will trigger me to bluff as it looks like he was drawing or weak when he just called.

I've set the stage exactly how I want it. The pot is big enough before the turn that I can probably get him all in if “I” want too. He's thinking he's most likely ahead because my bet has told him I'm probing.

1st scenario, the flush card hits on the turn. I'm only calling his likely bet presuming it's 100 to 150. Lets say he bets 110 into me. I call. The pot is now $376. Stacks are $218, he's committed on the river for the rest of it. On the river he moves in or checks, I call or move in. I don't think he can bet less than his stack here, if he does I move in. If he checks and I move in, he might get away from his hand but I doubt it. I think he's going to bust most of the time here unless a 4th heart hits on the river.

2nd scenario. The turn straight card hits 9 or A, he's probably checking to me with the idea of check raising. I'm going to give him that shot. Now, He's got $328 on this second turn scenario. I'm going to bet from our last bet ($60) to about 1/3 of "my" remaining effective chip stack. The stronger I read him to be the higher the bet. I bet $110. I've got enough left to fold, he's got enough left to make a substantial raise. In the rare instance he's on air here, we have enough left for him to think he can get me to lay down. Many players with a big hand move in here against this type of pot stab. If he moves in I have him most of the time. If he calls, then he's only got 212 on the river stairing at his set, the read I've given him (hopefully with success) he's moving in or callling all in on the river most every time.

3rd turn scenario if I miss. If I miss, (remember I've read this cat for being willing to go all the way) I'm checking behind. Now you may say that I've shown my hand and he'll make a read correction that I'm drawing. However, I feel confident that what our villian is really thinking after all these events is “ He tested his hand by raising me on the flop, now he checks, he does not like his hand or is too worried to bet. My top pair (or set) is still good.”

3rd scenario part “B” is I've missed on the turn but hit the river. 95% of our villians are thinking they are ahead here. The've put me on Qx most of the time here. It's pluasable and fits with all my actions thus far. It's a good pot, they fell like they are ahead and are feeling I am weak. Here the stacks are $328, the pot is $156. He's going to make a value bet and pray it gets called. He can't risk checking and letting me check behind. He has to bet the river. His bet will likely be about $80 because it's all he hopes to get called by second pair. He knows he's looked somewhat weak during the hand and hopes as a backup plan I'm going to bluff at him if he bets the right amount. He expecting you to fold or bluff from such weakness. Here you have to decide what's going to push this guys buttons. Meaning you might feed him a very slight tell and you might do that before he bets. He will bet. You have to raise but you want it to look like a bluff. In most cases here, I'm going to raise our villians bet to about $200. This is murky area, I might move in agaisnt a really cocky player. This puts 436 in the pot with $120 to him and his stack at $248. He's calling $120 here with top pair and 3 flush cards on the board almost every time. With a set, he's moving all in.

4th Scenario. I've missed the turn, checked behind. Missed the river. Remember in my example I felt the player was willing to go all the way. I don't think a bluff is plausable here. When he value bets the river I fold.

What's is the point of this diatribe? If I have a monster draw, if I hit, I believe this is the best way to get all (or most) of the chips in and maximize the hand. If I miss, I've taken a monster draw that was ahead of everything on the flop and not lost all my chips with it when I miss about 25% of the time. I've only invested about $72 in the monster missed draw. Only about 18% of my chips. I've reduced my variance to the minimum without (I think) losing any (or much) of the maximum pot when I hit. And, I've probably gotton a lot more from a villian with top pair by the river that is good enough not to get broke with top pair on the flop.

I welcome all remarks and suggestions on my views here. There is always something to learn in this game and I'm open to your ideas and reads here.

Dave