50/100 nl hand.

[kerpowski]

Jay,

What percent of the time do you think he's bluffing the river?

If we give him a reasonable made hand range of:

KK, 66, JJ, A2s+, A2o+, Ks5s+, any two broadway spades, any spade suited connector > 5s4s, any spade one gapper >7s5s

You'll have ~23% equity on this board with trips no kicker. That means he needs to be bluffing the river ~10% of the time for this call to be profitable. I'd say this is pretty close but you know the player in question better than I do.

On the turn he likely has a wider hand range (including more pure bluffs). I'd be much more inclined to c/r allin there.

[Paluka]

This seems like a fold to me. The guy has to have a strong suspicion that you have an ace.

[Jay.]

[ QUOTE ]
are you calling without a spade river?

[/ QUOTE ]

AJo Go All In meantioned that maybe it's better to call when the flush hits rather than doesn't hit. By the river play he should be putting us one an ace/flush draw with an ace seeming more likely, he should be checking all trips when the spade comes, and betting all made flushes and fullhouses. Still, it seems his range is top heavy + sometimes it gets split. So it seems a fold.

If the river does not bring the flush and he pots us i think it's a fold, the only reason for him to bet would be for value or with a low flush draw to fold a higher flush draw, i think his range of lower flush draws that ALSO bluff will be > 33%, considering he may not want to risk it given an ace,x is also in our range. His range here seems fullhouses, i very much expected a river check from him.

re: turn c/r.

I think the risk reward here is bad, we risk $9k, into a $5.4k pot. Makes the hand easier, but i don't like it. Yeti thinks his range here is wide enough to do it because it seems like a resteal/peel because of our lead.

re: turn bet.

I think it cost too much by losing out on a turn bet from a flush draw and pocket pairs that happen so much in this game. He's going to bet $2700 with 20% equity or less. that's 0.8 * 2700 i cost myself just to play the hand easier. It would also suck for him to mix a few flush draws in his turn raising range. If he checks we give him a free shot at 20% equity, costing 0.2 * 2700, not that much.

[ObnxNole]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and reload. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are you calling without a spade river?

[/ QUOTE ]
If the river does not bring the flush and he pots us i think it's a fold, the only reason for him to bet would be for value or with a low flush draw to fold a higher flush draw, i think his range of lower flush draws that ALSO bluff will be > 33%, considering he may not want to risk it given an ace,x is also in our range.


[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean < 33 %, or am I just too tired to be reading?

[VanVeen]

"Yeti thinks his range here is wide enough to do it because it seems like a resteal/peel because of our lead."

I agree - his hand range is wide enough given the % of the time he'll resteal and bet the turn with <20% equity to make a turn c/r all-in profitable, but is it more profitable than allowing him to continuing firing those times he whiffs on the river or follows through with air? Or, alternatively, if we know a hypothetical villain plays rivers passively (there are lots of them), we can save ourselves some money by allowing him to bluff the turn and dump on the riv those times we're behind (and save big monies). C/ring the turn only makes a lot of sense if his hand range has a disproportionately high % of flush draws and he plays rivers more or less correctly (not bluffing too frequently or infrequently when he misses) vs. stronger made hands or air (which we prevent from bluffing altogether if we c/r). Not sure that's the case.

Riv is def a c-f and I don't think it's close. He has to be calling the flop very thin (otherwise his hand range is way too strong - we beat nothing) an unrealistically high % of the time to make it profitable. Seems unlikely unless there's history.

[KaneKungFu123]

Are you guys playing 50/100 nl in the bahamas?

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]

"Yeti thinks his range here is wide enough to do it because it seems like a resteal/peel because of our lead."

I agree - his hand range is wide enough given the % of the time he'll resteal and bet the turn with <20% equity to make a turn c/r all-in profitable, but is it more profitable than allowing him to continuing firing those times he whiffs on the river or follows through with air?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree with what you are getting at, but it sucks that we are gonna fold to a pot bet on any river. I would rather just shut out whatever he may have and make this a hell of a lot easier to play by cr'ing allin on the turn. I suck.

I also agree that this is an easy(?) fold when the heart hits.

[-Skeme-]

man wtf happened. There seriously needs to be a rule implemented that says you can't post a hand, get advice, then not post results.

[Yeti]

1800 folded.