Razz - raise here when opponent incorrectly thinks he's ahead?

[roggles]

On fifth I am obviously a considerable favorite, but he doesn't seem to understand that. Should I raise?

On sixth would you consider raising? He is clearly not very smart betting into that hand, so I guess maybe he'd never fold.

Razz ($2/$4), Ante $0,40, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (7.65 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (4.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.83 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (10.83 BB - $43,30)

[RustyBrooks]

I almost always raise 5th here, especially if I think he'll call, or even better, re-raise. Whether I call the 3bet or cap (usually, just call) is another matter. I will probably not lead or raise 6th here. I'll take a free card if it's given and I'm definitely calling if he bets. You have probably 19 outs here, your hand is super live, but some of the times you get an 8 or 9 you'll lose anyway, so you have 11 guaranteed outs and if we count the other outs as 2/3 (for the 1/3 of the time he'll outdraw you when you improve on 7th) you still have 16ish outs, which makes you about 50/50 (simulation bears this out. In some cases you are a slight dog at like 55:45 but that's pretty much worst case)

I'd probably raise 6th if there was *any* chance that he doesn't have a 4 card 7 because in that case you're a slight favorite. In general I guess whether you raise has a lot to do with the image you wish to maintain, your tolerance to variance, and whether or not you have chat on [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[roggles]

Yeah after the hand I felt like an idiot for not raising fifth, and slapped myself very hard. Can't afford to miss bets! This is my biggest leak in Razz, that I act too quickly and miss a bet here and there. I really think it makes a big difference in the long run.

Why would you not cap 5th given the opportunity?

[RustyBrooks]

I would some times, not others. I don't know, in my mind I think it looks like I made some dumb move on him, and his three-bet is him saying, "not in my house biatch" and if I just call he'll think I'm some dumb monkey who raised for no reason and lead out on 6th also, and call a raise if I hit. Capping is good too if he's likely to call 6th and 7th when you bet. Some people, though, take calling as a weakness if you could have raised.

[RustyBrooks]

Also, although you're a favorite on 5th, you might be as little as a 3:2 favorite. Nothing wrong with capping as a 3:2 favorite but I don't consider it mandatory.

And yeah, you missed a bet here but what you really lost by that is a *fraction* of a bet. If you're a 60:40 favorite, 60% of the time you make an extra bet, 40% of the time you lose an extra bet. After 100 trials, you've made 60 extra and lost 40 extra for a total of 20bb, divided by 100 is .2bb per trial.

That is, missing a bet when you're ahead only costs you the fraction of a bet that's the difference between your odds of winning and villains. On the other hand, inducing a mistake when you make your hand can be worth a full 1bb when your opponent is drawing dead, so that's an argument for not raising - it might get 1 or 2 extra bb out of your opponent.

Edit: so I tend to see the raise on 5th as giving me a fraction of a bb now (in this case, between .2 and .4bb) but advertising how CRAZY I am for future profit.

[ChipsAhoya]

I'd probably raise 6th if there was *any* chance that he doesn't have a 4 card 7 because in that case you're a slight favorite. In general I guess whether you raise has a lot to do with the image you wish to maintain, your tolerance to variance, and whether or not you have chat on [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get hero better than 50/50 here? The best I can get for hero is 37% but I didn't play with it that much.

Even 16 outs doesn't make you a favorite when there's more than 32 unseen cards, which there are in this case (and almost every other case). I don't think there's anyway a made 9 can be an underdog HU on 6th...

-ChipsAhoya

[ChipsAhoya]

Also another benefits besides maybe metagame is that he probably won't bet into you like that on 6th when you catch good (pretty awful bet even if you didn't raise unless he'll b/f for some reason) and you can take the free card since you have position.

-ChipsAhoya

[RustyBrooks]

What I said was that I would raise if there was any chance he DIDN'T have a 4-card 7 (in other words, he doesn't have a 9, he's drawing to a 9). For instance, if the 7 paired him. This isn't true often though, and even if he HAS paired a 7, if his other card is fairly low, he's not far behind. Hero is never a favorite on 6th vs a 9 - but he is not far behind either.

There are other reasons to raise 6th, but they may not apply here. When you improve you may get another bet, and when you don't he may check the river (he checked here, though, even though you didn't raise, but that's not always the case. A raise can get your opponent to slow down and realize you might have him beat. However that's usually more relevant when you have a hand you'd like to showdown and at the moment you've got nothing.

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
I would some times, not others. I don't know, in my mind I think it looks like I made some dumb move on him, and his three-bet is him saying, "not in my house biatch" and if I just call he'll think I'm some dumb monkey who raised for no reason and lead out on 6th also, and call a raise if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, this is just as true when you cap. It's not like capping makes people who don't know they're behind think "maybe I don't know as much about this game as he does." They just think you're a megadonk and give you all sorts of action.

I love playing HU with these guys, because they never learn, and they never leave.

[RustyBrooks]

OK, I didn't want to say it, but I'm afraid I'll have to now. Capping 5th in a hand like this invokes the doomswitch. You heard it here first!

Edit: Villain knows this, that's why he'd 3bet!