Australian Open Final Opinion

Macdaddy Warsaw · #1 01-28-2006, 01:57 PM

I haven't seen the Australian Open discussed much here, and I can understand why...I don't make too many posts in Sports Betting but I've been looking at lines over the course of the tournament and was thinking at some point a line would come up that would allow for a good fade on Federer...

I haven't found any exceptional ones, and I just looked at the line for the final and feel that a bet on Federer to win has to be a good one. Baghdatis has recieved a lot of media attention, but he's been playing some very long matches and I haven't seen him be exceptional the way Federer is exceptional. Granted, Federer has been playing some sloppy tennis as well, but he has always been near automatic on anything but clay. His sloppy tennis is still tons better than the play of practically everyone else on the circuit.

The line is currently Federer at -640 and I think it's a great play, even though I won't be putting my money where my mouth is. EDITED TO ADD: I would if I had an account at Pinnacle. I do want to bet this play.

legend42 · #2 01-28-2006, 05:14 PM

First, you're not going to impress too many people touting Roger Federer to win a tennis match (did you take Goliath on the money line, also?). Second, I'm not sure I get your post.

You've been looking for a spot to fade Federer, presumably because you think he's overvalued and could be vulnerable, but now that he actually has looked shaky (for him) getting to the finals and is up against the guy who's clearly played the best tennis of anyone in the tournament, you think it's a "great play" to lay -640 on him?

Yes, he'll probably win. But does it have more value than something like the Pistons at home vs Orlando? I don't know.

Macdaddy Warsaw · #3 01-28-2006, 06:30 PM

I'm saying when the odds on Federer to win a grand slam before it even starts are anywhere from -200 to -300, you would be getting value if you lay -640 on him in a single match against a young upstart who has played some very long matches on the road to get to the final.

[ QUOTE ]
and is up against [Baghdatis] who's clearly played the best tennis of anyone in the tournament

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can say this. Marcos "go down two sets in the semis" Baghdatis has played the best tennis out of anyone in the tournament? Does this include Federer? Haas? Baghdatis looked very sloppy in the semis, while Federer has simply not been the rock-solid Federer everyone has come to expect. His somewhat sloppy play caused the line against Kiefer to go down from -3000 to -2500, and Kiefer has met and beaten Federer before (although obviously Kiefer is down bigtime overall). If Federe was getting -2500 against Kiefer, and I honestly believe Kiefer is at least equal to Baghdatis, how is laying -640 on Federer to beat Baghdatis not a great deal?

I don't think Federer loses this more than 5% of the time. He's in great shape and nothing gets to him.

First time Baghdatis ever gets this deep in a grand slam and he's going to come out and beat the 1st-place-near-automatic Federer?

The point of my post was to say that if you don't mind throwing a bit of cash around, I think throwing down 3 grand on Federer is a great use of money. Sell the farm, mortgage the house, etc. etc.

EDIT: The long and short of it is...as a result of Federer playing somewhat sloppy tennis and the story of Baghdatis defeating 4 (or is it 5?) top 10 seeds to get to the final has resulted in a line that is heavily skewed towards Baghdatis. I personally believe the gap between Federer and anybody else on hard court leaves any line that doesn't have you laying -1000 or more on Federer a good line.

MCS · #4 01-28-2006, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
His somewhat sloppy play caused the line against Kiefer to go down from -3000 to -2500, and Kiefer has met and beaten Federer before (although obviously Kiefer is down bigtime overall). If Federe was getting -2500 against Kiefer, and I honestly believe Kiefer is at least equal to Baghdatis, how is laying -640 on Federer to beat Baghdatis not a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

legend42 · #5 01-29-2006, 03:28 AM

I understand your reasoning and like I said before, you're probably right. And if his opponent were Nalbandian or Ludicic or any players who is more of a known entity, I'd agree to jump all over Federer at that price.

But we just don't know enough about Baghdatis, he might be something special. There is precedent for a young relatively unknown player to find his game and a surface he likes, take everyone by surprise and just explode through a major tournament. Not saying he is necessarily one of them, but there are some things that point to the possibility. And that, combined with Federer's recent shakiness, are more than enough to make laying -640 a bad proposition for me.

But hell, you're probably right and Federer rolls in straight sets. Is that non-committal enough for you?

Nick Rainey · #6 01-29-2006, 09:47 AM

I like the tennis discussion. Believe it or not sportsinteraction.com and a few other betting sites sometimes have matches that are already completed still up to bet on. There is a lot of good value in betting tennis, there are so many factors that the lines makers dont know about. Switzerland for Davis Cup this year might be a good bet as RF is playing.