The Official FGators Put up or Shut up Thread

[nath]

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I don't see how this can live up to the hype. The only way it can is if he was leveling us all along and he's up like 100k.

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yea his losses will just be like withing 1% of his expected losses. the only cool thing will be if it will be possible to show that his style is causing his loss.

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Didn't someone already do that? When someone posted their PT database of FGators breaking even for 100k+ hands, someone else pointed out that his W$WSF% and later-street AF were both way too low for him to win money, even though his VPIP/PFR were "Technically correct".

Maybe we should change his title to "starting-hand policeman" a la Ace on the River

[hra146]

No matter what this graph will look like, a custom title is for sure.

[Oki-Oki]

Still convinced Fgators is a gimmick. No one could be this stupid

But this graph is going to be awesome. Its 10am here and ive been awake 24 hrs but i have to see this graph and die laughing

[donkeykong2]

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so here is what FGators can expect realistically:
I dont know his standard deviation/100 so i assume it is around 60bb on average.
he has 4 mio hands, thats 40000*100.
the standard deviation rises with the square root of numbers.
so thats 40000^0.5*60bb=200*60bb=12000bb
12000bb is one standard deviation. that is around 240 buyins.
if he ran normal (95% probability) he should be within +-2*240buyins, so 500 buyins above or below expectation. it is just an approximation as he jumped levels so the math behind it is not 100% correct. say average stakes are 200nl:
500*200=100000
so he should be around +-100000$ from his expectation.
im not sure if the sd/100=60bb is an ok assumption though. pokerev will also only cover a part of the variance. so 100000 should be an upper limit under these assumptions.

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Very wrong.. this would mean that a win rate never converges.. and that playing more hands means you're getting farther and farther away from any kind of true measure of expectation.

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dont talk about things you dont know about. this is very right. the standard deviation of the whole result obviously gets bigger. if you take the standard deviation of you WINRATE that will converge to the true value.

[fluorescenthippo]

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I don't see how this can live up to the hype. The only way it can is if he was leveling us all along and he's up like 100k.

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yea his losses will just be like withing 1% of his expected losses. the only cool thing will be if it will be possible to show that his style is causing his loss.

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Didn't someone already do that? When someone posted their PT database of FGators breaking even for 100k+ hands, someone else pointed out that his W$WSF% and later-street AF were both way too low for him to win money, even though his VPIP/PFR were "Technically correct".

Maybe we should change his title to "starting-hand policeman" a la Ace on the River

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yea someone probably did. i just saw claytons post without the math behind it. pokerEV would help this even more since with these more rare situations the EV will help see where he is at.

[HeroInBlack]

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when are we going to see an FGators:well post?

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1

[viciouspenguin]

did he post anything yet?

[PJo336]

greatest question in his well

"do you believe in luck?"
lol

[ChrisV]

omg up in time for epic threadness

[hra146]

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omg up in time for epic threadness

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what is your sleeping schedule / time zone?

ninjaedit to not look stupid: australia! what time is it there now?