Chances of outflopping Aces

[Poker monkey]

Tight opponent re-pots and you're 99% sure he has AAxx. If you call, you'll have effective stacks of one PSB on the flop. He will put the rest in on any flop.

What are my chances of hitting a flop to give my hand >50% equity vs bare Aces with

a) four random cards
b) KKQJ double suited
c) 9876 rainbow
d) 9876 double suited?

[alavet]

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...tionEditor.jsp

[tvta]

maybe you could ask a similar question for more info.

you raise the pot in 6 handed game on button after 3 folds.

bb repots.

assuming he has aaxx and will not fold for any amount of money on any flop, how many bb deep does he need to be in order to try and outflop??

i will post in probability forum (i dont know answer)

[NooBster]

A) Call - any four in a row (suited or not) excluding 2345
B) Call - on flop fold anyhing less than 2 pr, set, or oesd, if you hit oesd + flush = AI
C) Call - AI on flop w/ any 2
D) Call - will gladly get AI on flop w/ any 2 pr or oesd

Basic answers for pretty basic question

[Poker monkey]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe you could ask a similar question for more info.

you raise the pot in 6 handed game on button after 3 folds.

bb repots.

assuming he has aaxx and will not fold for any amount of money on any flop, how many bb deep does he need to be in order to try and outflop??

i will post in probability forum (i dont know answer)

[/ QUOTE ]
This is what I'm trying to get at in my question - maybe I didn't word it very well in the OP. How often will you flop 2 pair or better, or a draw that is a favourite to an overpair?

[Poker monkey]

[ QUOTE ]
A) Call - any four in a row (suited or not) excluding 2345
B) Call - on flop fold anyhing less than 2 pr, set, or oesd, if you hit oesd + flush = AI
C) Call - AI on flop w/ any 2
D) Call - will gladly get AI on flop w/ any 2 pr or oesd

Basic answers for pretty basic question

[/ QUOTE ]
(Without wanting to sound too much like Sklansky,) I don't think you or alavet understood the question.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maybe you could ask a similar question for more info.

you raise the pot in 6 handed game on button after 3 folds.

bb repots.

assuming he has aaxx and will not fold for any amount of money on any flop, how many bb deep does he need to be in order to try and outflop??

i will post in probability forum (i dont know answer)

[/ QUOTE ]
This is what I'm trying to get at in my question - maybe I didn't word it very well in the OP. How often will you flop 2 pair or better, or a draw that is a favourite to an overpair?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not asking how often you will flop 2 pair, you're asking how often you will be ahead of AA, equity wise, after the flop. It's important to understand the difference.
AA with a nut flush draw is ahead of 2 pair on the flop.

[NooBster]

Poker Monkey,

I think I see what your getting at and the answer is its poker dude. Who the $%*# knows what the flop will bring, but I will say this for you. If you can indeed narrow your opponents hand down to AAXX then by all means call a 3 bet pre flop with all the holdings you asked about. You're never worse off than 60-40 pre flop against most hands. If you hit 2 pr on the flop you're slightly better than 54%. If you do hit TTP w/ a hand like 9876 then you also have a nice wrap to your 2 pair. So basically I believe you out flop aces about 35-40% of the time and the other times its a very easy fold on the flop when you miss. The most important thing about this post is that you are indeed able to recognize your opponents hand. Play his aces against him. If an ace comes on the flop or 2 to a flush you can put him on trips and mabye even nut flush draw depending on his flop bet. I make more and more of my money not from playing aces myself, but from recognizing that my opponent has aces and playing his hand against him. I'll take a flop with the theoritical A,B,C, and D hands against aces all day long.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hit 2 pr on the flop you're slightly better than 54%.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumption will cost you lots of money playing Omaha.
Opponent gets dealt 4 cards as well as you.
Just yesterday I reraised KK67 preflop and the flop came 458. That was amusing when opponent proudly turned over T985 at showdown.

[NooBster]

Ribs,

You're absolutely right, however, I believe Monkey's question relates to us being able to put our opponent on AAxx. In your scenario, where our opponent isn't always playing AAxx, two pair can and will certainly cost you. NO Doubt. However, here is a hand I played several days ago that I think relates pretty close to the topic at hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1381026

Opponents RR PF from the blinds screams one thing at this level. I elected to just call his rr b/c if I miss the flop I can always get away with an extra couple bucks. And even though I know he's flopped trips it was the best ace that could have hit b/c I can be like 95% sure my flush draw is live. Plus I'm playing very shortstack so my options are few and far between.