*** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

[What?]

NozeCandy (couldn't tell)

So we disagree calm down dude.

[NozeCandy]

[ QUOTE ]
NozeCandy (couldn't tell)

So we disagree calm down dude.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm very calm. What you said was dumb.

As for not having an all-world offense, I guess we'll just wait and see. Lloyd is not stupid. He knows his defense is not going to be what wins him games this year unless some people step up massively. I think he might take the chains off this year, especially if it is going to be his last.

[Zimmer4141]

Michigan's offense has loads of talent. If you look at it, there are 4 players on Michigan's offense that are arguably top 5 in their position in the country.

RB Mike Hart
QB Chad Henne
WR Mario Manningham (please stay healthy this year)
OT Jake Long


I haven't been keeping up with personnel this year, but we need a 2nd receiver to step up. It should be Arrington, but I know he's been having off the field issues this year.

Defense has definite holes, especially in the secondary. Morgan Trent needs to step up, but he won't be nearly as good as Leon Hall.

[NozeCandy]

I'll never trust Trent no matter what he does this year. Jarret abused him so badly in the Rose Bowl. Arrington is still on the team and should be fine, and I think some guy named Gary or Greg Matthews or something has supposedly done extremely well in practices for a 3rd option at receiver. I'm not worried about the offense at all.

[jgunnip]

Can't wait for this season, gonna be a fun home slate. I'd be interested in getting some type of 2p2 get together, I think that would be a lot of if people are interested.

To the guy who wants a bad season, LOL at you. Do you have any idea what you are talking about or how things work? Llyod is the one of the last connections the team has to Bo, he'll be around for as long as he wants, although, rumors circulating around Ann Arbor say he'll likely call it quits in the next two years. He's got some health problems that and friend of mine who works for the team has lead me to believe.

There's also been a lot of grumbling in the past few years about the offense. Last year they let go former offensive coordinator Terry Malone, he, to put it nicely, was not very good at his job. they brought back Mike Debord last year and we saw that when it matters most (ie the big games) the offensive play calling was much more open. Its true we don't run it up on the cupcakes but whats the point really?

Here's a good article comparing our OCs for the past few years.
http://homepage.mac.com/vijayr/iblog...228/index.html

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll never trust Trent no matter what he does this year. Jarret abused him so badly in the Rose Bowl. Arrington is still on the team and should be fine, and I think some guy named Gary or Greg Matthews or something has supposedly done extremely well in practices for a 3rd option at receiver. I'm not worried about the offense at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

The offense is going to be pretty good. Obv the worries are on the defensive side of the ball. Can Morgan Trent and Jamar Adams step up? Can true freshman Donavan Warren step in right away and fill a role in the secondary? There's a lot of doubt about the D-Line with the loss of Branch and Woodley but I'm pretty confident that Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson will be exceptional replacements as they get inserted into the starting slots. Don't forget Shaun Crable is there on the outside as well.

The biggest loss imo was David Harris, he was really the cornerstone of the defense and led the team in tackles his last two years. There was hope that JUCO transfer and JUCO national defensive player of the year Austin Panter would be able to step in and play but word out of Spring camp was that he still had a ways to go to in his transition to the D1 level. Hopefully he puts in a good summer and is able step in this fall.

[damaniac]

Nice home schedule for my last year in A^2. Tough growing up watching us own OSU only to go 1-5 while I'm there (1-5 in bowls, too, but that's hardly a new tradition). If you want a good preview, I strongly suggest "Hail to the Victors" (clever title) from Maple Street Press. Brian of MGOBLOG fame wrote most of it (with help from some other bloggers/journalists), so you know it will be fantastic. Also a comparison of Malone/DeBord/Parrish (I think) from the guy from IblogforCookies, since I saw someone reference that.

Anyone doing any away games? I'll be at every one but Illinois.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice home schedule for my last year in A^2. Tough growing up watching us own OSU only to go 1-5 while I'm there (1-5 in bowls, too, but that's hardly a new tradition). If you want a good preview, I strongly suggest "Hail to the Victors" (clever title) from Maple Street Press. Brian of MGOBLOG fame wrote most of it (with help from some other bloggers/journalists), so you know it will be fantastic. Also a comparison of Malone/DeBord/Parrish (I think) from the guy from IblogforCookies, since I saw someone reference that.

Anyone doing any away games? I'll be at every one but Illinois.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm looking to do Illinois and Wisco.

[DVaut1]

My goofy analysis:

Automatic Wins: 5
App. State, NW, Eastern, Minnesota, Mich. St.

App. State isn't even Div1A, Eastern is a terrible MAC team, and Northwestern and Minnesota will probably both be at the bottom of the Big Ten this season.

I know I'm tempting fate by putting State here, but put a new coach/system and a new QB together with a team that was already pretty bad, and I don't see this game being competitive. This isn't your 2001 Sparty team, who surprised us in East Lansing but had Smoker/Duckett/Rogers and a thieving time keeper. They're just bad.

Almost Automatic Wins (greater than 90% confidence): 1
Purdue

I may be underestimating Purdue here; they have one of the better aerial attacks in the conference, as they have an experienced QB in Painter and a few skilled WRs; and short of Warren stepping in and immediately becoming a shutdown corner and/or Trent learning how not to get torched, our secondary is a glaring weakness. Still, the game is at home, Purdue's defense is awful, and the fact that Purdue was a bowl team last year says more about the bowl system than it does about the quality of last year's Boilermakers team. Short of some disaster, this is likely a win.

Probable Wins (greater than 75% confidence): 2
Oregon, Illinois

Oregon fell apart at the end of last season and look like a mediocre Pac 10 team. If this game is all that close, there's a chance that Hart/Henne are on crutches watching from the sidelines. With the rosters as currently constituted, I don't see us losing this game at home more than 1 out of every 4 times it's played.

I've state my reasons for being scared of Illinois and I stand by them. Summary: They're getting better, it's a night road game, and we're historically very questionable on the road in the Lloyd era.

Sort Of Worrisome But I'm Confident: 2
Notre Dame, PSU

No Quinn. No Smardizkzkzjza. No McKnight. No Walker. Clausen is an Emu. Defense is very good, though. We're probably better, and it's at home, but meh, we've lost to inferior ND teams in the past, so who knows.

PSU is a good team. Maybe I'm underestimating them, too. But most of last season's defensive line is gone, so we should have no problems running against them, but Connors and the other good linebacker they have (whatever his name is) may help there.

Levi Brown, the only guy who did any blocking for Morelli in the Michigan game last year, is in Arizona. Speaking of Morelli, count me in the camp that doesn't think he's good.

Again, maybe I'm overly confident here, but the PSU game doesn't strike fear in my heart.

Tough: 2
Wisconsin, OSU

Playing Wisconsin on the road in November is a tall order. Do they ever lose at home? They always have an offensive line +1500 lbs combined, and PJ Hill is obviously very good. Throw in Beckum catching balls over the middle against our questionable linebacks and secondary and this game has all the potential of being very scary. Either Donovan or Evridge will have taken alot of reps at QB by the time November rolls around. I think it's probably a very underrated offense right now that might not be so underrated come November. They do have play tOSU before us, though.

Not much to say about OSU. Troy Smith is thankfully and finally gone, but the defense is outstanding. They'll have plenty of [censored] teams to feast while whoever wins the QB battle gets comfortable. I won't make any predictions about this game, lest I unnecessarily anger the college football gods.

------

I haven't mentioned our special teams much. While I love Zoltan, he won't be kicking important, game-deciding FGs. I don't like our chances to come out on the right side of high-variance, close games with an inexperienced kicker, and this year sure reminds of me the Brabbs/Finley/Nienberg disaster of 2002.

Assuming we split the two tough games and lose one of the four Probable/Worrisome games, I think 10-2 is a reasonable bet. If something goes wrong (bunch of injuries to key players, etc). then 9-3 is possible. Similarly, if we get lucky, stay healthy, and everything falls right, we'll probably be competing for a spot in the BCS title game. I have enough secondary & special teams concerns to say this: I think we're currently at something like 6-1 to win the national title at most sportsbooks, but that strikes me as far too generous. Don't get me wrong, we're a very good team and the schedule sets up nicely, but this is a team with disconcerting weaknesses. Give me last year's team against this year's Big Ten and this year's favorable home-heavy schedule and I really like our chances to get to the BCS title game. This year's questionable defense and special teams puts alot of doubt in me.

[NoPoHustler]

Oregon fan assessment for our upcoming Meeting:

We are quite possibly screwed/it could be close. I know that is a wide range there so let me explain.

The primary reason why we could be screwed is our QB situation. On a scale from 1-10 our QB situation is a 5 at best. This is due to the lack of consistency from projected senior stater Dennis Dixon. When the kid is on, watch out because he can break down defenses with his legs and make some big throws. When he is off...well lets just say he personally was responsible for a couple losses which caused the entire team to spiral downhill.

Our receiving core is big and fast. If we had a decent QB good god I love it. Right now it is under-utilized.

Our running game is top-notch. We have probably the best 1-2 tailback combo in the country with both having the ability to rip a long run at any point. Jonathon Stewart is a legit STUD. He is a junior this year and we are expecting big things from him. Here is a a quick youtube run from his freshman year STUD . Jeremiah Johnson is the yang to his ying as he is not so much a power guy but is shifty. Here is a nice run (he is known for this kind of stiff arm) Stiffy .

Our O-line should be solid.

The variance for this offense is the new system brought in by new Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly who apparently is a spread offense genius (so they say).

The reason we have a chance is because for one game, with our weapons on O, we could get your inexperienced D in a world of hurt early.

Our defense is going to be decent. We have very good secondary skilled players and our D-line will be back to 100% this year (we were decimated on the d-line last year having to pull over a 3rd string TE due to injuries). This is a very good thing as we can actually look to stop the run this year again as we couldn't stop anything last year.

Our Linebackers will not be great but will be good enough to get the job done.

To summarize I see Michigan winning big or the Ducks winning a close one. If we get down huge our team will quit. If our offense figures it out and clicks...you guys are in trouble because we CAN (can not necessarily will)put 500 yards up on anybody.