5/10 Why hasn't he folded yet?

private joker · #1 02-04-2006, 08:44 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (8 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
????

I can think of a good argument for bet/fold, and a good argument for check/call.

Let's hear them both.

bambi · #2 02-04-2006, 09:40 PM

To be honest i think check/calling is best to induce a bluff when he missed a flush draw.

Also a read would be nice

I cant really seem him raising this river ever. But a solid player might do that with an over pair, i think we about 50/50 if not a little bit behind his range here, so i dont think it matters if a bet goes in, i vote check/call.

Tell me if my ranges are wrong

276 games 0.005 secs 55,200 games/sec

Board: 8d 7h Jd 2c 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4348 % 55.43% 00.00% { 99+, AJs+, A8s, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, A8o, KJo, QJo, JTo }
Hand 2: 44.5652 % 44.57% 00.00% { J9s }

private joker · #3 02-04-2006, 09:47 PM

I think because it's a steal raise (open from the CO) his range is a bit wider. But his flop and turn play indicate he has a hand.

istewart · #4 02-04-2006, 09:49 PM

Check/calling seems inconsistent with your flop play, though I could be wrong.

Shillx · #5 02-04-2006, 10:00 PM

Why did you bet the flop?

bambi · #6 02-04-2006, 10:00 PM

Yeah i agree his range is a bit wider, but by the river that should be close, i think it would be about a 50/50, hence i dont think it matters if a bet goes in, as it isnt really a value bet, and if it is its so thin.

I dont understand what you mean stewart? inconsistent with your flop play, i know we have been the agressor on the flop and turn, but i am a little confused.

Also i think that alot of times here when we check/call the villan will bet our hand for us alot, thinking we have given up on overs/flush draw, so he will bet many or most of the hands he would call with on the river, also we get the added advantage of picking off a bluff, and not being pushed of the best hand.

DemonDeac · #7 02-04-2006, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

would u rather c/r?

private joker · #8 02-04-2006, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/calling seems inconsistent with your flop play, though I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may thing I could have been jamming with a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in his eyes, so there are some holdings I would check on the river that aren't TP.

private joker · #9 02-04-2006, 10:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

would u rather c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts as well. I like my flop bet here. I have TP with a gutshot, so my equity is probably fairly strong unless I am dominated. A c/r could miss, and I'd hate to give a free card to AK. And if overcards raise, I can 3-bet. If the other donk cold-calls, even better.

Abbaddabba · #10 02-04-2006, 10:11 PM

I think you're more often getting value from bluffs at the river than you are calls from worse hands. At the very least, it's close. He's usually raising the flop with a top pair esque hand, or a draw. Second pair is less often raising that flop comparatively. And who knows, second pair may very well wrongfully value bet the river if you check to him too.

You very rarely see bluff-raises on the river here, but it's always good to prevent yourself from folding a winner in case he gets feisty.