Daniel Negreanu's Latest Cardplayer Article

[LGs0pHT]

Although I really love DN on TV, I must say that DS is completely right here.

There is always a certain ROR, Risk Of Ruin, which can be 1% as well as 90%. It depends on how you manage your money. By taking "risks" or shots", you basically increase the ROR and hope, that it auto-decreases due to good variance.

However this will most likely not work every time you try it (try to reach a higher level), and can throw you back farther back than it can kick you forward.

Imagine you have a 20k Bankroll and play NL1K FR, you have 20 Buy-Ins. No you want to take a shot at NL2K FR.
Lets say you plan to leave in case you double up. Now there are two possible cases: Either you double up and leave with 4K. You now have 22K in your BR and still can not play NL2KFR safely (since you need at least 40K). Considering, that the you have not played NL2K FR, and might not be able to beat it, it is much more likely that you loose 2K. Your BR is 18K then, and you are not even safe at NL1K anymore. Now you have to go back to NL500K. To build up to 20K you need to win 4 Buy-Ins now, while earlier (when your BR was 20K) it would only have taken you to win 2 Buy-Ins at NL1K to reach your original goal of a 22K.

[fraac]

But I'm better than everyone else so it'll be okay.

[LGs0pHT]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm better than everyone else so it'll be okay.

[/ QUOTE ]
But you are not better than variance.

[pyedog]

[ QUOTE ]
Pyedog...

Any proof to back up ur assertions that DN bets a good percentage of his net worth?

[/ QUOTE ]
All of my proof involves NVG posts. So perhaps it might not stand up in the highest courts in the land.

My opinions are also based on his blog posts where he appears to gamble it up recklessly. For example his million dollar challenge matches against heads up experts in the game of their choice. I'm just saying that if it's a question of who I respect more between Sklanksy and Negreanu then it's Sklansky because he seems to have a plan for his hard earned money. I also think he's a better poker player, because my definition of best poker player includes money management and not just card skills.

[bigbootch]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone like Raymer wasn't taking a shot. Yeah, he played high, but he was already a very successful patent attorney with mid-6-figure income.


[/ QUOTE ]

was raymer really some hot-shot lawyer making 500k/year? i thought he was just a solid one making a solid living, like 150k or 200k or whatever.

-bigbootch

[bustedromo]

[ QUOTE ]
The big mistake I think some of these young internet poker stars are making is they view poker as a sport, as opposed to an unbounded game with a significant component of chaos.

They seem to seek out competition against certain players because they wish to prove themselves better, or because they perceive that that is how they will become better.

Seems I've read a few anecdotes on these forums of certain players going busto in their obsession to beat certain other players in a quest to prove who's the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another aspect of the above: tilting against a perceived lesser player because either variance isn't going their way, or, maybe, their perception is wrong.

From Townsend's 8/22/2007 blog:

[ QUOTE ]
Today I played a bit of HUNL. I did really well except for playing one very weak player. When I played some tough competition I did fine but then I played the weakest player I played all day and tilted like crazy. I used to have major tilt problems and I really worked on getting rid of it. But now it seems to have come back especially when I lose a few pots to a player that I view as weaker. I am really going to try and focus on playing well and not letting tilt creep in. Also my stop loss may help with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[good2cu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The big mistake I think some of these young internet poker stars are making is they view poker as a sport, as opposed to an unbounded game with a significant component of chaos.

They seem to seek out competition against certain players because they wish to prove themselves better, or because they perceive that that is how they will become better.

Seems I've read a few anecdotes on these forums of certain players going busto in their obsession to beat certain other players in a quest to prove who's the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another aspect of the above: tilting against a perceived lesser player because either variance isn't going their way, or, maybe, their perception is wrong.

From Townsend's 8/22/2007 blog:

[ QUOTE ]
Today I played a bit of HUNL. I did really well except for playing one very weak player. When I played some tough competition I did fine but then I played the weakest player I played all day and tilted like crazy. I used to have major tilt problems and I really worked on getting rid of it. But now it seems to have come back especially when I lose a few pots to a player that I view as weaker. I am really going to try and focus on playing well and not letting tilt creep in. Also my stop loss may help with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG so young poker players tilt unlike the pros of old? Give me a break.

The other quote is also pure and utter BS by most players who have been playing high stakes games for any length of time. But I agree that a lot of the younger guys do have ego problems (obv i know from firsthand experince).

[bustedromo]

[ QUOTE ]
OMG so young poker players tilt unlike the pros of old? Give me a break.

The other quote is also pure and utter BS by most players who have been playing high stakes games for any length of time. But I agree that a lot of the younger guys do have ego problems (obv i know from firsthand experince).

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh heh. I think I've seen photos of you. You're about 21 years old or so.

The older live poker pros are survivors. Yeah, some of them are very rich, but neither their wealth nor their age is what differentiates them from guys like you. What differentiates them is that they survived tough times.

In my age bracket (early-mid-40s), myself and the successful traders I know, we all went nearly broke a couple times, and for every successful money man we know, we all remember 10 guys who blew up too many times and are out of the game.

What a lot of the young online wizzes don't have a feel for is that this is a boom. Booms make everything easier and pump egos way up. But can you survive a flat or down poker market?

Brian Townsend may be the smartest one of any of you because it looks like he's recently realizing that fortune was on his side, that the degree of his success has had more to do with the current environment and surviving variance than with his substantial skill, that there's more to life than poker, and that maybe now's the time to get out.

But you ... maybe you're headed for a fall and you don't see it coming ?

I've seen all this before. The realities of gambling never change, just move in cycles from one game to another.

[Sayitloudernow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OMG so young poker players tilt unlike the pros of old? Give me a break.

The other quote is also pure and utter BS by most players who have been playing high stakes games for any length of time. But I agree that a lot of the younger guys do have ego problems (obv i know from firsthand experince).

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh heh. I think I've seen photos of you. You're about 21 years old or so.

The older live poker pros are survivors. Yeah, some of them are very rich, but neither their wealth nor their age is what differentiates them from guys like you. What differentiates them is that they survived tough times.

In my age bracket (early-mid-40s), myself and the successful traders I know, we all went nearly broke a couple times, and for every successful money man we know, we all remember 10 guys who blew up too many times and are out of the game.

What a lot of the young online wizzes don't have a feel for is that this is a boom. Booms make everything easier and pump egos way up. But can you survive a flat or down poker market?

Brian Townsend may be the smartest one of any of you because it looks like he's recently realizing that fortune was on his side, that the degree of his success has had more to do with the current environment and surviving variance than with his substantial skill, that there's more to life than poker, and that maybe now's the time to get out.

But you ... maybe you're headed for a fall and you don't see it coming ?

I've seen all this before. The realities of gambling never change, just move in cycles from one game to another.

[/ QUOTE ]


BACK IN MY DAY...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[David Slongsky]

bumpith