Top pair meh kicker

[milesdyson]

- c/r flop
- bet/3bet flop
- c/c flop, c/decide on turn (i would c/r this one)

these are my lines here yo

[Shillx]

If you can't check/raise this flop you shouldn't be playing the hand. There are some people who will raise a v small range out of the BB and if you have that read it is perfectly fine to fold PF on the 2nd go around. Of course if he has a big range then c/r the flop.

[YesMehFriend]

Unless villain is weak/tight he'll never fold a Q. Check the turn and see what happens. If it's bet - fold/call you can call down. If it goes bet - raise you can get away from your hand.

[YesMehFriend]

[ QUOTE ]
- c/r flop
- bet/3bet flop
- c/c flop, c/decide on turn (i would c/r this one)

these are my lines here yo

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like this one. Oh and I'd agree we should c/r this turn.

[Bilgefisher]

FWIW, I folded the turn. When he raised, I stopped and slowed down. I just didn't see him doing this without a made hand. Was I right, I'll never know. I agree I should have probably just c/c this down.

I understand the c/c down HU, I just don't know how effective it is with multiple people in the hand. I'm not a huge fan of overcalls. (Although I still do it, I'm trying to ween myself from using that a sa default play).

Can anyone explain c/c when your making an overcall, whether this is a good or generally bad play?

Also, I dunno about the flop checkraise, where does that get me? If he has a queen, he's calling this down. About the only hands I have beat at this time is JT, TT, 99, or AK. He has me beat with a lot of combos here. With my weak kicker, I just see my self betting for him and spewing chips with that play..

[YesMehFriend]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I dunno about the flop checkraise, where does that get me? If he has a queen, he's calling this down. About the only hands I have beat at this time is JT, TT, 99, or AK. He has me beat with a lot of combos here. With my weak kicker, I just see my self betting for him and spewing chips with that play..

[/ QUOTE ]

?? He has you beat with AQ, KQ, QQ+. And he will bet a lot more hands on this board (one of the best c-betting boards I've ever seen ...). I think we must c/r either the flop or the turn. Since this board is fairly ragged he might c-bet many turns expecting us to fold. And he might bet many hands that have like 3 or less outs (AJ, JJ, TT ...).
Moreover if a scarecard hits you can reevaluate and choose your option on the turn.

[DrModern]

Let me see if I understand the argument for check-raising the flop. Let's say the BB's range is:

88+, ATo+, A9s+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, QJo

Since this is a fairly dry board, we'll go ahead and assume that he'll bet here 100% of the time, either as a semi-bluff continuation bet or a value bet.

In order for check-raising the flop to be a good move, we have to be ahead of BB a goodly percentage of the time.

We are ahead of the following:
88 (12 combos)
99 (12 combos)
TT (12 combos)
JJ (12 combos)
AKs,o (16 combos)
AJs,o (16 combos)
ATs,o (16 combos)
A9s (4 combos)
KJs,o (16 combos)
KTs (4 combos)

= 120 combos

We are behind the following:
QQ (1 combo)
KK (12 combos)
AA (12 combos)
AQs,o (8 combos)
KQs,o (8 combos)
QJs,o (8 combos)

= 49 combos

So we are ahead of the BB ~71% of the time. O.K., yeah, wow check-raising is good here. Now granted, if we narrow the BB's range some our equity edge goes down here, but I don't think it can be narrowed that much--maybe A9s, 88, and KTs could be removed, but if we're doing that we should probably remove QJo as well.

Obviously UTG being in the hand complicates things, but I'm not really worried about him.

I can still see arguing for donking the flop is we thought BB might check here a non-trivial percentage of the time, thereby causing us to miss value.

If this mathematical analysis was obvious and intuitive to you pros, well, you can hush your mouths, because it was helpful for me to do it (because I never make myself).

[Reaction]

Dr. recheck your combos on pocket pairs

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
Dr. recheck your combos on pocket pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

4 possibilities for the first card * 3 possibilities for the next = 12, no?

[Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dr. recheck your combos on pocket pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

4 possibilities for the first card * 3 possibilities for the next = 12, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody correct where I am wrong.

Using 4 x 4 to equal 16 combos of AK is Ad Hoc.

Use C(n,m) = n!/((n-m)!m!). Where the n is the total number of items being selected from and m is the number selected.

So for total combination of A & K

C(8,2) =

<u>(8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1)</u>
(6*5*4*3*2*1)(2*1) =

<u>8*7</u>
2 = 28

That includes pairs of AA and KK. If you want to subtract pairs:

# pairs of As = C(4,2) = 6
Times that by 2 for A and K = 12

28-12 = 16 non-paired combos