Sort of crappy river

[sharpie]

48/30/1.7 over 28

Full Tilt 15/30 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $15.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.
Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.
River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero???

[jt1]

Why does my PokerStove show you have 40% equity? You only beat AJ,99,A9 and QJ. I guess 77 is possible.

I would call if he's been maniacal but fold if not. In reality, I'd definitely call but I'm a chump.

[sharpie]

Is that a check/call?

[jt1]

Ahh yes, You are oop, aren't you? Villain doesn't seem as strong now. I would definitely c/c. I definitely think you are ahead here 1/13 times even if he bets. This is a blind battle, you have two pair, villain is a hyper LAG and he didn't raise the turn.

Redundant info put in for my sake:

Bet/folding is bad because 1/25 times or so he'll bluff raise you and you'll get an extra bet (+1 more than from check/calling) less than half the time he doesn't bluff.
Bet/calling is bad because he won't raise often enough to justify the call
Check/calling may induce a strange bluff from a hand like 96, you'll never fold the winner and other hands that you beat may still bet for value.
Check/folding is bad because he'll bet AJ or 96 or J8 or even J7 more than 1/13 times.

[Oink]

Does he have AJ, 99 and 77 enough for c/c &gt; c/f.

At Lag Tilt Poker where everybody has a wtsd of 40 and above I wouldnt be suprised if there was some value in this bet.

Edit: His flop play makes a lot of sense for 99 and AJ

[sharpie]

I think betting gets a bet in when we're ahead more often, the trouble is I really don't wanna fold to a raise against this guy in a pot of this size, and I'm not sure I have enough equity to put in 2 bets?

Edit: Unless you discount AQ alot and assume he often won't raise TPGK/TPTK on the river.

[jba]

check and fold, next hand. also I wouldn't cap the flop.

[sharpie]

Against this guy getting like 13 to 1?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does my PokerStove show you have 40% equity? You only beat AJ,99,A9 and QJ. I guess 77 is possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't believe the 40% even though I haven't checked. would love to see the range you used.

also A9/QJ are pretty unlikely. 77 like never.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Against this guy getting like 13 to 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's always has a made hand here so pretty much your only chance is that he value bets a worse hand which i think is worse than 13:1


edit: btw I'd never c/f at the table