Television Props 10/12

[llabb]

People have bet these for a couple weeks now, and I noticed that Pinny put up some TV props for this week. Apparently some of the favorites either opened high or got bet up big, so there's good value in some of the underdogs.


1) Ugly Betty vs. Shark - Value in Shark

Currently -210/+180, Ugly Betty is favored strongly here. It has the edge on Shark, but shouldn't be that huge of a favorite. UB has gone from 16.1 viewers down to 14.2, and will likely drop more in its 3rd week. Shark has gotten 14.9, 14.7, and 13.8. It looks like it has already experienced the initial dropoff, and may hold steadier this week.

The question is how much UB drops off, and if it drops even half of it's Week 1 to Week 2 loss of almost 2 mil, then it would get 13.2, which Shark has a solid chance at beating. I'd estimate that the UB edge should be like 55-45, maybe 60-40 tops.

That means that Shark is a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.


2) Grey's Anatomy vs. CSI - Value in CSI

Currently -210/+180. Grey's definitely looks overvalued here, since CSI and Grey's have split the lead each week. CSI: 15.40 (repeat), 22.0, 23.5, 21.2. Grey's: 7.41 (repeat), 25.1, 23.3, 22.5. So we see that CSI has a larger regular audience from the repeats, but Grey's is having a great new season, from the extra Sunday promotion at the beginning, which has faded. CSI won a week, then Grey's won, then CSI, then Grey's.

So these 2 have shown they each can win on any given week. Grey's got off to a good start, but has less of a base, and has faded every week. CSI has a strong base, and has gone up and down a little each week. If Grey's fades again, as is likely, CSI could fade less or even increase. I'd give Grey's the same 55-45 edge, perhaps 60-40 at most.

So again, there is a lot of value in the underdog, with CSI being a good value bet down somewhere into the +120 to +150 range.