Evaluating the Danger of a Flop

[Geoff Lightning]

Hi, I've read these forums for a couple weeks, but this is one of my first posts. I've come up with a way to evaluate how dangerous a flop is, and I wanted to hear some feedback on it.

3D (Danger Points) for each card being same suit
1D for two cards with matching suits
1D for each non-paired face or ten card (K-T)
2D for one or two aces
1D for three aces
4D for three connecting cards (Q-high through 6-high)
1D for two connecting cards (J-high through 5-high)
2D for three cards with one gap (J-high through 4-high)
1D for three cards with two gaps (K-high through 6-high)

The most dangerous flop based on this system is QJT suited. The basic idea is that the more dangerous a flop is, the stronger a hand you need to bet, call, or raise, since the more dangerous a flop, the more likely an opponent hit the flop, and hit it hard.

Let me know if this is a good idea, and if there are any improvements that you could note.

- Geoff Lightning

[headturner1]

It's great and everything that you came up with this system, but unfortunately these types of ideas tend to be inate in a decent poker player after some time playing.

its cool that you are assigning value and ranking them. personally, i dont really think about it too much because it is so automatic for me now.

[elindauer]

Hi Geoff,

This is a really insightful idea. Don't let the naysayers get you down... when you couple this kind of unique thinking with a little more experience, you've got the potential to find a really good player. Keep thinking for yourself like this.

As to your actual question, this kind of flop classification probably doesn't have much merit once you get beyond the very early stages of the game. I admit that I didn't think about it for too long though.

good luck.
Eric

[evilgenius]

Why would they be more likely to have hit? Dangerous flops can look the same to everyone with out those cards. Assuming your opponent has those cards is wrong. Knowing how to play scary flops is more important.

Creative though.

[Geoff Lightning]

I'm not assuming that opponents have the cards, but I am saying that it is more likely that they did hit it. When I say this, I mean that out of a range of playable hands (even a loose range), opponents will more often catch a piece of a dangerous flop and not give the hand up than on a nondangerous flop. It's not meant to be an end-all solution to anything - the points are rough, but it is meant to give a little grounding on a subject I hear people talking about but not really going into great depth on.

[Poker Plan]

You are definitely thinking about this the right way- ie evaluating the flop and thinking about how it relates to your opponents. But I would say- is the system actually useable in reality- remember, you have to make decisions (especially online) relatively quickly.

When the flop drops, I ascertain the following:
-What's the highest board card
-Flush draws available?
-Straight draws available?
-Paired board?

And this is just for the board itself. Remember you'll also have lots of other info to throw into the pot at this point: Number of opponents still in / Who showed PF aggro? / Relative positions of opponents to myself / etc.



Ian

[TheFresh1]

I think some of your danger points are a little off and should be given more weight than others, but that's not a bad idea if it works for you

[Geoff Lightning]

Care to elaborate? What would you change in regards to the weighting