am i getting proper odds here?

Low_Card2 · #1 09-03-2006, 09:46 PM

Playing .25/.50 at hollywood at a table with about 6 donks and 2 guys that call with anything and cap with any pair. So anyways, i get dealt 22 in late position. Donk #1 Raises, Donk #2 Reraises and Donk #3 caps. Donk #5 cold calls the cap and #6,7+8 fold. What should i do here? Call? Am i getting proper implied odds?
Thanks

AKQJ10 · #2 09-03-2006, 11:02 PM

It's pretty dubious -- you're paying 4 bets to see a flop with Donks 1, 2, 3, and 5 in the hand. I think 5:1 is generally considered the rule of thumb for playing small pairs for set value.

Also, although it certainly sounds like you'll get paid off for a set with these clowns, the bigger preflop call means you need to make 4 times as much to break even postflop as you would having called a single bet.

In other words, if you called a single bet then a final pot of 5.5 big bets (11 small) would give you 10:1, so you'd have a call if you could estimate this as the EV of the final pot. But with four small bets, you need a final pot of 22 big bets to get paid off 10:1 when you hit.* Furthermore, the action may indicate multiple big pairs out against you, increasing the odds of set-over-set.

The 10:1 is a bit arbitrary, but I'm bumping up the 8:1 odds a bit to consider that sets don't always win. Sets can occasionally win big full house-vs.-flush battles that help their IO immensely, but asking for 20-some big bets in the final pot is a bit much, even with maniacs in the game.

ottsville · #3 09-04-2006, 09:29 AM

In limit, getting >4:1 on the call I make this sometimes. Some of it depends on your postflop play. You would call(maybe even raise) if 4 players had limped to you right? Against players like this you will get paid off if your set hits, but like AK said, you need to be aware of set over set situations. The 10:1 is a little on the pessimistic side...you are 7.5:1 against flopping a set(IIRC)...I would discount that to ~8.5-9:1 for the times you make your set and lose. But, I don't think that a final pot of 22 big bets is unrealistic with these guys since, if you call, the pot will be over 10 big bets already.

Low_Card2 · #4 09-04-2006, 10:09 AM

thanks for the advice. I ended up calling, becasue i assumed i was getting massive implied odds. I called and flopped a full house (2 6 2) and ended out capping out with a guy who had A6

ckj · #5 09-04-2006, 05:35 PM

isn't that quads if you had a pair of deuces in the hole and was flopped 262?

Low_Card2 · #6 09-04-2006, 06:44 PM

yeah i meant 626 sorry

TheFresh1 · #7 09-05-2006, 02:04 PM

Unless you're getting 5 to 1 odds or better (with the odds of catching a 2 on the flop approx 7 to 1), I'd say you're not getting the right odds, since more than likely if you don't hit a 2 you're going to have to throw the hand away. And it appears you're getting 4 to 1 odds at best (if the 2 players yet to act call, which it appears they will). But I would fold in this situation

Oranzith · #8 09-06-2006, 08:16 PM

if we go by the 1/8 to win, and its 4 BB per person with 4 in

1x times you win 16+ BB
7x you lose 4 BB

-16 + 28 = -12BB give or take

At this point, it doesn't look promising if I understood the manner you described the bets

ottsville · #9 09-06-2006, 09:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if we go by the 1/8 to win, and its 4 BB per person with 4 in

1x times you win 16+ BB
7x you lose 4 BB

-16 + 28 = -12BB give or take

At this point, it doesn't look promising if I understood the manner you described the bets

[/ QUOTE ]

The theory behind your calculations is sound, but you also have to think about how much may go into the pot after the flop if you hit your set - implied odds.