Ideal win rate 1BB/hr too modest?

[JJNJustin]

I often wonder about the generic 1BB/hr figure that has been listed in so many 2+2 books and how the writers arrived at that figure. Unlike some of their other statistics, there arent really any equations or derivations on how to estimate such a figure. Granted, there are many more intangible factors.

I did a little experiment though, that I thought might be interesting to some of you. I used Wilson Turbo Texas Hold'em and played in a 10-handed game at normal rake with my opponents' cards face up. Playing this way, I was able to average 15 bb/hr. This is an ideal situation and obviously nobody could ever play this perfectly, but if playing in this game yielded 15 BB/hr despite the rake, wouldnt it be totally reasonable for a very good player to earn something like 3-4 BB/hr, especially if his opponents are playing in very predictable ways (i.e. with their cards face up)? Isnt the 1 BB/hr figure a very modest estimate, and dont some of you average like 3-5 BB/hr ? Shouldnt it be at least conceivable?

-J

[punter11235]

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hr

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Live if you get 25hands/hour you are lucky so 1BB/hour is more like 4BB/100 which is quite good.

[Webster]

OK - I do a lot of SIMS with TTH and for one thing there bad profiles are VERY bad and it would be VERY hard to get a table with more then a few of those "loose" players.

HOWEVER - with that said - if you played with a bunch of bad profiles which yielded a 45% flop% - yes you could make 4-6BB/100. It would be like playing in the micro's.

Before The Rapture when Americans were Left Behind with tight poker rooms I would play $5/10 in 50-60% tables at least once a week, it was like playing $.5/1. I was winning 3-4BB/100 since March (42,000 hands).

But they dried up so now I'm back in the 1.5-2.5BB/100 range depending on what site I play.

It's all about conditions. Play WSEX and I'll be lucky to be 0BB/100, play Full Tilt and I'm 2BB/100. There is always a trade off.

BTW - I'm almost down making aggression factors for all the profiles.

[JJNJustin]

No, I'm not talking 4-6BB/100 I'm talking 3-5BB/35 (35 hands/hr live.) Try it yourself, load up TTH, modify game settings to all opponents cards face up, set the rake appropriately, and load a profile of your choice. Now play normally and see how much you're winning. I was winning about 10-15 BB/35 hands. I'm not saying this is achievable, but that's a huge window between reasonable expected for a good player (1BB/hr) and ideal perfect (10-15 BB/hr).

Isnt it?

-J

[TheFresh1]

I think it really depends what level you're playing at. Winning 1 BB/hr at 2/4 is a lot different than winning 1BB/hr at 30/60

[Webster]

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but if playing in this game yielded 15 BB/hr despite the rake, wouldnt it be totally reasonable for a very good player to earn something like 3-4 BB/hr, especially if his opponents are playing in very predictable ways (i.e. with their cards face up)?

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The problem is that your SIM is so completely different then real life. It's like telling a Pro baseball player to hit off a tee and then wondering why he only hits 30 HR's a year.

Players are WAY less predictable in real life - even fish make brillant plays at times and even pros make blunderous moves.