Big Loss in One Session

[Rbower]

I play limit Texas Hold 'em about one or two times per week. This year I've played around 500 hours. I'm winning such a small amount that I consider myself a break even player. I'm learning and I want to win consistently.

I recently started playing at an 8-16 limit table. In my first six sessions I won 4 times and was up $888. Yesterday I played a 9 hour session and lost $778. I’ve played at that table against 8 other tough opponents and won. Yesterday the table was filled with at least 4 bad players all day. I played solid all day, but could not get any hands that held up. In the past when I’ve started losing I felt myself getting rattled and have not always played my best. Yesterday was a break through, because even though I took the worst lose ever in one sitting, I stayed absolutely calm, did not go on tilt in the slightest and kept playing solid all day. It was actually a good feeling, except for the lost money.

Is it possible to lose this much just due to the variance in poker? I’ve read a lot about players going on losing streaks and that it is just part of the game. So far I’ve never had more than 4 losing sessions in a row. I don’t have any friends who play poker a lot so I depend on books and this forum to get advice. I consider yesterday a success because I did not let the run of bad cards get to me.

[Hielko]

You probably play bad.

[GiantBuddha]

So you've won $110 in seven sessions at a $8-16 game. Sounds like a break even player to me. Accounting for the rake, you're actually beating the other players by a significant margin. 50 Big Bets is a huge loss, but I've had about three of those in my lifetime, and I remember each one with sickening clarity. It's a part of the game, but if this happens often, then you should start to worry.

[DougL]

Was this live or on-line? What were the game conditions like? Where do you rate yourself among the other players, 5th best out of 9?

Over a 9 hour session, a loss like this is possible regardless of how well you play. If you're a break even player, this loss is more likely because you don't have a $32/hour trend pulling you up. You should be able to find many good posts on variance to get the math on how likely this loss is based on your EV and stdev.

Sorry to hear about your bad day.

[n.s.]

I've had several losses of that magnitude (one time I lost 50 BB in just 3 hours!). After much thought, I think that each time I was certainly doomed by the cards to take a substantial loss, but I think every time I made it worse by tilting - perhaps as much as half of the money could have been saved had I played perfectly.

In your case, I think it's highly unlikely that you "did not go on tilt in the slightest and kept playing solid" - tilt is very subtle and even the best players suffer from it. There was a time when I thought that my ability to not tilt was perhaps my greatest strength, but now I've come to realize that my tilting is probably my biggest downfall.

[Rbower]

Thanks for the reply. I've won 60-70 big bets in about 4 hours playing 3-6 a couple of times. Yesterday was the first time I've ever lost more than 30 big bets in a session. I moved up in limits because I've heard many times that it is impossible to beat the rake in 4-8 and 3-6. I don't know if that's true but I feel comfortable playing 8-16 or 10-20. I will never go higher than that unless I can truly beat those limits. I'm not there yet.

[GiantBuddha]

The thing about losses of this magnitude is that other players start playing better against you. They see you as beatable and you become readable because you 'never have anything'. Your semibluffs stop working, and your marginal hands are no longer marginal. I've come back from 50BB down to post a 70BB win by the end of the session, though, so it really depends on the game. A lot of players underestimate variance, and seem to think that their short term results carry more significance than they actually do.

[Rbower]

I'm still in shock about how well I'm taking the loss, but I know it's because I played a good game all day. I'm sure I was on tilt a little bit, because it is always harder to play when losing. It was live game and I would rate myself anywhere from 5th best to 2nd or 3rd out of 9. I don't know the players very well. I do know that most of them play every day and I only can get there about once per week. They don't seem to be that good at poker especially since they play all the time.

[Rbower]

You are right. I'm sure I was more on tilt than I realized but it does not account for that big a loss. I agree with you about always working to stay off tilt. Yesterday was my best effort at minimizing my tilt factor in the face of really bad day. I watch people all the time blowing off hundreds of dollars in 15 minutes because they go on tilt. My goal it play as steady as possible at all times. It is not easy to do.

[Gabe]

you'll get one of these on average about every 40 sessions or so on average. sometimes you get a few clumped close together. not fun.