Trips with good kicker, but I'm throwing up.

[Keys Myaths]

Villain is 27/10/2.44 over 430 hands, mostly datamined.

I figured, a value bet couldn't hurt on the river, but WTF? What the hell do you do in this spot?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($35.35)
Button ($31.60)
SB ($66.95)
BB ($18.05)
UTG ($26.05)
Keys ($25.40)

Preflop: Keys is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Keys raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2.25</font>, Keys calls $2.25.

Turn: ($6.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Keys bets $3</font>, SB calls $3.

River: ($12.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Keys bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $21.75</font>, Keys ????

[creamfillin]

Why all of a sudden check on the turn? not saying it's bad but why? deception?

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
Why all of a sudden check on the turn? not saying it's bad but why? deception?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check on the turn. The color schemes are screwy.

[castigar]

Isn't a check on the turn after a call like this on flop standard?

[creamfillin]

Oy, the colors are [censored] with me head. I would say the river is a pretty easy fold, the turn check looks alot like he filled up and is now in trapping mode. I would make the vbet slightly bigger.

[Gullanian]

Id definatly rr the flop. If he raises you again fold it.

[KEW]

Turn and river bets are too weak...Weak river bet may have induced a bluff raise from villain????? Either way Absent a read I make a note, FOLD and move on....

[centja1]

i think raising the flop is poor because you're not going to like getting 3-bet and you essentially turn your hand into a bluff. your hand does have value here, so there's no need to run off KK-JJ or A9 or whatever villain has.

i often flat call on super-duper drawy boards like this when i have just one pair in order to use my position to make higher value bets on the turn and/or get away from my hand if villain seems to just not care that i called him on an ace-high board.

you should probably know whether or not you're going to call a check-raise before you bet the river. if you're betting something like KK, then it is obviously an easy fold, but your hand has A TON of showdown value even though there are not that many hands that are going to call your bet that you beat.

I'm still torn on whether to bet or not, but if you do bet then you probably need to go broke here because while busted flush/straight draws are a significant part of his range, once he check-raises you, then it is probably pretty close 50/50 that he has a boat or trips with you.

[rivhawk02]

In position with top pair, good kicker, im raising the flop because villain does play an awful lot of pots . If you get raised big, you can fold, but id make a note because of the stats on villain. If you are still around on the river after raising the flop, id probably call since villain could easily have trips with a weaker kicker or busted flush draw. As played, I think a full house HAS TO bet on river after not betting turn for some sort of value and would lean towards a call.

[Keys Myaths]

He's 27/10. We can do this. What is he calling with that we beat, and that we lose to?