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#11
04-20-2007, 04:34 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
Predicting individual stocks is really really challenging, whereas the macro factors that affect the market level are more obvious and known. [/ QUOTE ] If macro factors are more obvious, then it is harder to benefit from this knowledge becasue it is easier for the market to incorporate this info. Kind of like football in sports betting. It is the easiest major sport to handicap and hence the hardest for a pro to make money from because everyone agrees on the betting line. 
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#12
04-20-2007, 05:26 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
New thoughts on the day:
VTRIX managed to lose half a point. HYAHACHAHCHACHA!!!1
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#13
04-20-2007, 06:26 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
Today was a very good day on the market for me..
+$682.. now I just have to decide whether or not to dump SAY.. up 12.4% in the last week and a half, might be a little bit overpriced now..
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#14
04-20-2007, 06:31 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] predicting individual stocks is 100 times easier than predicting the whole market, which has a gazillion different factors affecting it and could go up or down in general on any of these factors. [/ QUOTE ] wha? I really disagree. Predicting individual stocks is really really challenging, whereas the macro factors that affect the market level are more obvious and known. Im talking about over a 12 month period btw. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, yes the macro factors that affect the whole market are more well known but theres way more of them and too many other variables that effect things. Individual sectors actually the easiest to predict, and then I usually have to tie in the stock's financials into that and make an educated decision. All I know is trying to predict whether the NASDAQ or S&P 500 is going up or down tomorrow is fruitless. Too many quaterly earnings reports that could cause it to go one way or the other. I can tell you that in the next 3 months, HMC will with almost certainty not drop below 5% of its current value. I can give detailed analysis about it too.. Can you tell me what will happen to the S&P 500 in the next 3 months?
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#15
04-20-2007, 11:52 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
I predict the market is going up, unless it goes down or stays the same. [/ QUOTE ] Since the market goes up on friday about 56% of the time, this is clearly the +EV play! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#16
04-20-2007, 11:54 PM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
All I know is trying to predict whether the NASDAQ or S&P 500 is going up or down tomorrow is fruitless. Too many quaterly earnings reports that could cause it to go one way or the other. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think all those earnings reports have equal ability to move the entire market?
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#17
04-21-2007, 12:53 AM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
All I know is trying to predict whether the NASDAQ or S&P 500 is going up or down tomorrow is fruitless. [/ QUOTE ] It's fruitless for YOU. All those people trading e-mini's probably disagree.
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#18
04-21-2007, 01:04 AM
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Re: Thoughts on todays market (4/20)?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] All I know is trying to predict whether the NASDAQ or S&P 500 is going up or down tomorrow is fruitless. [/ QUOTE ] It's fruitless for YOU. All those people trading e-mini's probably disagree. [/ QUOTE ] Worth noting, a lot of those emini traders aren't even trying to predict "tommorrow", they are trading on TODAY... the NOW...
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