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#11
07-22-2007, 09:50 PM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
.708/.292? I see plenty of equity there. [/ QUOTE ] I see split equity here. Villain has the same proportion in reverse to improve to a high hand that hero has to improve to the low hand and vica-versa. Its 50/50, there is no significant edge. Call down, pop if you improve. 
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#12
07-22-2007, 10:19 PM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
Uh, I just noticed that you used stud high here. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
In reality, hero is a 4:3 money favorite if we give the other guy 8732A. I don't see any real downside to jamming fifth street.
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#13
07-22-2007, 10:46 PM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, I just noticed that you used stud high here. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] In reality, hero is a 4:3 money favorite if we give the other guy 8732A. I don't see any real downside to jamming fifth street. [/ QUOTE ] Fuggah! I swear i selected S8/b first [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2884570 pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 6h 2d 5h 3s 5s - ah 3d 7c 8d 2c / 4h 9h 4d 4c qs jc 6c kd jd 7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 5s 3s 2d 6h 5h 142086 353891 146109 0 216530 43059 748 0.571 7c 2c 8d 3d Ah 71665 146109 353891 0 282722 216530 748 0.429 </pre><hr /> Based on this I'd jam if i didn't feel the villain would raise. The equity edge isn't large enough IMHO to push it if the villain is known to jam away with just a counterfeitable low.
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#14
07-22-2007, 11:21 PM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
I don't quite follow why you would willingly pass up an edge here. Is this the "lies, damn lies and twodimes" factor?
Your numbers show that when there is no split, we are scooping twice as often as we are getting scooped, so it sounds like a much bigger edge if you say it that way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#15
07-22-2007, 11:29 PM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
Is this the "lies, damn lies and twodimes" factor? [/ QUOTE ] There's some of that, but there's also the "why the hell are we assuming he has A3" factor. If his low has a 5 or 6 we're only very slightly ahead, if he has 65 we're behind, if he has a high hand we're waaaay behind. A3 is pretty much our best case scenario.
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#16
07-23-2007, 12:36 AM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is this the "lies, damn lies and twodimes" factor? [/ QUOTE ] There's some of that, but there's also the "why the hell are we assuming he has A3" factor. If his low has a 5 or 6 we're only very slightly ahead, if he has 65 we're behind, if he has a high hand we're waaaay behind. A3 is pretty much our best case scenario. [/ QUOTE ] how good of a high should i give credit for here? villain in this case pretty much played a standard tight game and i don't think he shows up with less than pAA or rolled 8's - and thats pretty unlikely given preceeding action. 872xx (where xx are 2 low) makes up a huge part of his range. i'm only <50% equity against trips and xx = 65 only tho. even then its like 45% equity.
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#17
07-23-2007, 12:52 AM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
how good of a high should i give credit for here? villain in this case pretty much played a standard tight game and i don't think he shows up with less than pAA or rolled 8's - and thats pretty unlikely given preceeding action. 872xx (where xx are 2 low) makes up a huge part of his range. i'm only <50% equity against trips and xx = 65 only tho. even then its like 45% equity. [/ QUOTE ] Mostly I'd be worried about A8.
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#18
07-23-2007, 01:07 AM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
right on: xx = A8 comes to 43.4% equity
was this just an utterly marginal situation? i felt like my play was really good here (except on 6th) but I really need him to show up w/ an 87 low on 5th to give me the better end of the very small equity to be had. at the same time, i can't be in that bad of shape, only giving up a very small amount of equity. is it enough that i had seen him jamming with any low that figured to be best at the moment, no draw for high to swing the equity to my advantage, or do i need to give him credit for a high hand much more often? i'll give results if you guys want.
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#19
07-23-2007, 01:33 AM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
[ QUOTE ]
was this just an utterly marginal situation? [/ QUOTE ] I think so.
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#20
07-23-2007, 09:51 AM
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Re: was i right (stud/8)?
Hi/lo isn't my best game but considering there are a couple of hearts, a couple of 4's, & one 6 that are dead...I'd probably muck on 3rd. My thoughts are that if you get in there with a mediocre hand you're trying to catch a perfect card while dodging bullets the whole way.
Some of you would probably argue that it is a multiway pot, so if you can peel one off for cheap, then go ahead & see 4th.
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