Am I crazy for even thinking about raising in this spot!!

[Carmine]

I played this hand a few weeks ago at the Taj and I just can't help wondering if it would have been crazy to raise the turn to increase (actually give me my only chance given my read) to win this growing monster pot.

UTG - 20ish kid. Tight, straightforward, more of a weak-tight player but only been at table for an hour or two.

UTG+1 - Average bad player. Too loose and can't see much beyond his cards

MP - Hero

MP - Decent tight player who is retired and plays many days a week

HJ - Super loose, super bad fish

Btn - Average bad player

BB - Another averge donk


UTG opens, UTG+1 calls, I 3 bang red KK, MP calls, HJ calls, Btn calls, BB calls, UTG caps (this is no worse than 85% AA), all call.

Flop28SB) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG bets, all call.

Note here UTG has set of aces 90% and I'm hoping for a red Q to fall.

Turn17.5BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero has to at least call for FH odds but knows he has only at best a 10% chance to win against UTG's bigger FH draw. Hero is thinking of 3-banging even though he knows he is behind but needs a solution to the UTG dilemma.

Insane or what?

[tessarji]

The idea is to make UTG fold? Getting about 24:2 when he knows he has at least 7 outs?

He would only fold if you showed a straight flush faceup. Since he will judge it unlikely you '3-banged' with QTs, I think your plan is in trouble.

[mr pink]

dude, there is no way utg is folding top set.

[jba]

how do you know he doesnt have AK or QQ after only an hour? I'd just call down, pot seems big.

edit: I actually mean call and fold the river UI unless the heat dies down a lot and you can close the action somehow.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop28SB) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Note here UTG has set of aces 90% and I'm hoping for a red Q to fall.

Turn17.5BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero has to at least call for FH odds but knows he has only at best a 10% chance to win against UTG's bigger FH draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have to at least call. you have to fold.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Flop28SB) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Note here UTG has set of aces 90% and I'm hoping for a red Q to fall.

Turn17.5BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero has to at least call for FH odds but knows he has only at best a 10% chance to win against UTG's bigger FH draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have to at least call. you have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about that also. It was a very frustrating position. I guess thats why it's been bothering me for so long. Anyone else for a fold. And to answer the other possibilities. This player does not lead out QQ on an AJT into seven players and on there are very few AK combos left especially after the turn. He also doesn't cap JJ/TT PF especially after all the CC'ers between us. He is just to tight for that.

[mike l.]

do what you know is the right thing and muck you hand.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
do what you know is the right thing and muck you hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that too.

[alleatoryage]

I have no idea what people are talking about when telling you to fold the turn. If you're so sure you're drawing to a two-outer (where if you hit it on the turn, many people will still have redraws set up for the river) why not fold the flop?
The answer, of course, it that the fold would be ludicrous in such a large pot.
This is still the case on the turn, except you have more outs. I really think it's not reasonable to narrow down UTG's hand as much as you have, but hey, you were there and I wasn't... but all the same, I think a turn fold is bad.

That said, a turn raise is a spew, as you will fold out UTG's AAA approximately never. Just call, fill up, or better yet, hit quads, and you'll be all set.

Are we playing no-limit here or something? Are we afraid of a pot-sized bet on the river or what?

[mike l.]

"why not fold the flop?"

because he should draw to his straight. but the only right play on the turn is to fold. (note: this thread is entirely irrelevant if hero doesnt actually read hands as accurately as he claims to, but argiung that point is silly).