NL 200 5-handed: AA, horrible board, 4 players in the pot

energyjoe · #1 10-11-2006, 08:15 PM

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($28, 4 players)
SB bets $15, BB calls, Hero? ... BTN?

BB and SB have played very loose. I've seen both make awful calls on flop. SB's bet is unusual, he's a calling station. My intuition tells that he has a draw. Button is decent player. If he gives action on this flop, I have to fold my aces.

All players have ~200$

What's the right play?-)

Novles · #2 10-11-2006, 08:19 PM

Eww that sucks. Bump it to $75.

energyjoe · #3 10-12-2006, 09:45 AM

My play was to raise to 40$. Assuming that one player calls it leaves me with enough $$$ to make a pot sized bet on turn. There are about 20 cards in the deck that I don't want to see. If none of them comes my plan is to push the turn. If button calls/re-raises my raise I'm finished w/ the hand. Is this reasonable?

ChooseJif · #4 10-12-2006, 09:57 AM

I'm with Novles. With 4 people in the hand raising to 40 is a mistake on this board. With str8 and flush draws available you've got to hammer it.

Womble · #5 10-12-2006, 10:28 AM

Well, you have to raise this to get rid of people and charge draws. If you are gonna raise $40 is just a waste. I would bet at least 70 here

energyjoe · #6 10-12-2006, 11:15 AM

I try to get some math out of this situation.

JJ,TT,88,Q9,JT,J8,T8s,97s are in both players ranges. 30 combinations. Equity 12.4% - 87.6%

Axc are in both players ranges. Suited XXc connectors ~20 combinations
Equity ~55% - ~45%

Loose player's whole p/f-range
22-QQ, A2s+, A6o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q9+, J9+, SC 65s+, SC1GAP 97s+; roughly 250 combinations

I'm very lost in this hand. I think "bet more, charge draws" doesn't apply here because majority of draws should call my push here. Many draws should call even if there wasn't a penny in the pot. If the above number of combination calculations makes any sense a single loosey goosey player should call my push 1 in 5 times. Majority of the time I'll be crushed or it's a coin flip.

Against 3 players this situation looks very thin, or am I missing something?

Drawing hands equity drops if turn is a blank. That is the thinking behind my original action of raising little on the flop and pushing the turn... to get draws to fold or call incorrectly.

If it's OK to raise to 70$ why not just push this flop?
Is there some alternative plan... calling 15$?

monkeymaps · #7 10-12-2006, 11:26 AM

I agree but why not charge the maximum by raising to 70ish on the flop and then push safe turn if calling your push on the flop is correct for them why offer it to them?

Paul Thomson · #8 10-12-2006, 11:31 AM

If you raise to 70, are you call a push...I assume you must. This flop sucks and I wouldn't hate a fold, there's alot of bad reverse implied odds in this hand. I don't really like raising, you're likely up against a sronger hand or at least a hand that has alot of equity against you.

I prefer a call and possibly fold to alot of action on the turn.

ChooseJif · #9 10-12-2006, 11:37 AM

I think this is a raise or fold situation. Your read was that he was betting a draw, if that was my read I would raise pot.

Paul Thomson · #10 10-12-2006, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a raise or fold situation. Your read was that he was betting a draw, if that was my read I would raise pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are generally right, when you say this. But at the same time, look at the specifics.

Sure our opponents suck. But if we raise to $70, then we are committing ourselves to the pot and that kinda sucks on this board. More or less, if we raise, then we are risking $195 to win a $60 pot. Sure we could win more if someone is on a draw and pays us off. But there are a ton of big combo draws out there that would have nearly equal equity.

So maybe the best play is to fold. That's not a bad idea. We have poor reverse implied odds and there are a ton of scare cards on the turn and river, so it'll be hard to call many bets on the turn and river when they're are a ton of scare cards.

It's $15 into us with $60 in the pot. I'm pretty sure we have 25% equity, the big question is whether or not we can get to a cheap showdown. Maybe it's worth continuing with the hand because both players suck and since we'll be able to outplay them.