Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Yowserrrs · #1 11-28-2007, 03:55 PM

your own article invalidates your argument. Since 1943, 18 teams have started out 0-11. assume 25 teams per year over 60 = 1500 seasons....that equates to a 1.2% chance NOT a 0.1% chance, about 12x difference...obv there are some flaws with this but not enough to justify a 1/1000 chance of Miami being where it is.

kyro · #2 11-28-2007, 04:04 PM

I don't understand what you're saying. How on earth does history show that Miami isn't running god awful?

Yowserrrs · #3 11-28-2007, 04:07 PM

im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

kyro · #4 11-28-2007, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Because Miami is significantly better than your average 0-11 team.

kyro · #5 11-28-2007, 04:10 PM

And anyways, I have no idea what the odds of Miami being 0-11 is. It was your number and I was just saying that yes, Miami has run real bad, to an extent we haven't seen before. It might be 1/1000, it might be 1/500, it might be 1/3000. I haven't run any numbers yet.