Check-raise this river?

[Bicycles_Biatch]

I think your read AND your explanation are GREAT.

However, I think a bet 3 bet here still works a fair amount of the time.

Usually when people cap a draw, then get there, rationale (i.e. you might have KK) is TOTALLY over-ridden by their excitement over "getting there" on the river.

I'm willing to bet, even if he "thinks" you have kings, he still raises this river for value and says, well, he must have aces cause that King made me a FLUSH :-)