a foray back into 30/60 limit, 2 overpairs in big pots

[ssmallz]

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How about if the AA hand goes bet, call - action to me?

A lot closer there I think.

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Absolutely. Against many live players I would fold in that spot with AA rather quickly.

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Getting upteen:1 closing the action w/AA you'd fold? Never in a million years am I folding for 1 bet on that river w/a hand that I'm fairly sure will be best at least 10% of the time, probably more

[drbk2]

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the thing is, it may be a call! i am kinda out of touch with the way the games play these days, and don't have any definitive answer for either hand. I folded hand 1 awfully because when I was a full time limit player, I would never, ever be shown kings in that spot given the preflop and river action specifically.

hand 2 is so tricky, because he's raising behind 2 people whom it looks like he has no fold equity with. Remember that he capped preflop AND raised the flop, which IMO is never a hand like AcJx. So when he pops the turn, even if his range is exactly AcKx, JJ, AA, KK, it's still a fold given reverse implied odds. But like I said, I have more trouble assigning ranges as i did in the old days. Today, people might cap AJo behind 3 people...in my experience they don't though.

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Ohhh ok, I thought you actually did call in hand 1, that's why I was so confused. It's such an unusual spot that like I said before, I would just quickly click call out of confusion and from pot odds alone. But it seemed like you wanted a logical explanation of how we would come to that decision, so as I was reasoning it out I still can't really see how you could logically beat anything, especially if we eliminate KK or QQ or other overpairs out of the limp reraiser's range.

Hand 2: I definitely understand WHY you folded. It just seems like such a stupid time to make a semibluff, and the villain's hand looks huge. But like I said before AA and KK and AcKc or AcQc usually doesn't back off on the flop after you 3 bet. Therefore I think if you were going to assign him the range of AcKx, JJ, AA, KK, and maybe throw in AcQx, you would really have to take a lot of weight off of AA and KK. I agree that he almost never has AcJx here.

Anyway, these two spots are really difficult regardless of whether or not you are out of touch with the way games play today. I think the variety of responses you got here definitely shows that.

[drbk2]

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How about if the AA hand goes bet, call - action to me?

A lot closer there I think.

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I think that makes AA an instamuck. What if it goes bet fold to you? I think that would be a lot more difficult...

[ILOVEPOKER929]

"Getting upteen:1 closing the action w/AA you'd fold?"

Against some live players this will be an insanely easy fold even getting 20-1.

"Never in a million years am I folding for 1 bet on that river w/a hand that I'm fairly sure will be best at least 10% of the time, probably more"

What this statement reveals to me is that you dont have much experience playing live. I will let you in on a little secret. There are some live players out there who will always have a hand that beats AA when they call all those bets on the flop + turn and then donk the river into both aggressors. It is your job to become adept and spotting these player types so you will be able to make these so called "bad" folds getting umpteen to 1, and you will end up saving lots of money over the course of a year. Remember pot odds dont matter if your good 0% of the time. Of course if youre not sure of what kind of player you are up against, then dont fold.

Im just letting you know that there are spots in poker where pot odds can potentially be irrelevant, where the hand breaks down to a simple logical problem and if youre quick at figuring out the solution you will be able to save alot of money over your career. Of course it only takes a few screw ups to totally wipe out the bets you save, so you have to be very sure on your reads and in your ability to make those reads, but these type of folds can be done correctly. Dont let anyone dissuade you of that fact. Ive made these type of folds many times playing live even though the "books" would say Im crazy. I can tell you havent played much live poker ssmallz, becuz if you had you would know exactly what I'm taking about.

A good example of what I'm talking about is if I were in the BB in James282 hand, and I called all those bets on the flop and turn and then donked the river on that card, James can fold his AA safely and the other guy can fold his KK's becuz I will have them beat 100% of the time.

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[Victor]

"A good example of what I'm talking about is if I were in the BB in James282 hand, and I called all those bets on the flop and turn and then donked the river on that card, James can fold his AA safely and the other guy can fold his KK's becuz I will have them beat 100% of the time"

but do you overlimp reraise ever? that, at least, shows he capable of tricky erratic play. folding there is a pretty big disaster barring phyical tell.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

"but do you overlimp reraise ever?"

There are times when I will overlimp reraise without any compelling reads but these events are so rare that there almost not worth mentioning. One example: Someone limps UTG in a full ring game and I overlimp UTG+1 with a hand like KJs,KTs,QJs,QTs,JTs and somone behind me raises and 3 people coldcall the raise and the BB and UTG guy calls. I would now 3bet with all those hands. Probably a silly example but nevertheless, its something I would do.

"that, at least, shows he capable of tricky erratic play. folding there is a pretty big disaster barring phyical tell."

I agree with you Victor, given the way the action came down we cant fold the river here. I was talking to ssmallz about something else. James mentioned that the river would be alot more closer to a fold had the BB donked instead of the LRRer, and I completely agree. I was explaining to Ssmallz that although we are getting great pot odds on a crying call, folding the river, when the BB donks after that flop+turn action, will still be the best play against many individuals in the poker universe since they will always have a hand that beats AA in that spot. The key though is to figure out who those individuals are so we can save bets in the future in situations like this. Of course if we dont have a strong read that this opponent fits that player description then its back to a pot odds situation that will lead to the requisite crying call.

[James282]

i really like victor's point about erratic and senseless play. that is an obvious tell that i totally missed because i didn't do enough job of really parsing the decisions on every street based on the information given in this hand alone. rational players hardly overlimp reraise - so turn this hand into a bayesian problem under the assumption that irrational players will overlimp reraise with 20% of the hands they have in this spot and rational players will overlimp reraise 2% of the hands they have in this spot - we should be operating under the assumption that the player we are dealing with is irrational and thus not bother to assign weighted ranges when the pot gets to this size.

[jomatty]

dont ask me why someone would play KK or QQ that way preflop but i still think that by the river those are his most likely hands. sure his preflop is not consistent with that holding but everything else he did in this hand screams KK to me. i still don't raise in that spot although i think it is a heck of a lot closer to a raise then it is to a fold. he probally paused and realized that there is very little chance of the hero, who prolly has a a big pair, raising this river, so decided to bet to get value when he was ahead and lose the same if he is behind. not saying it is right but that is my guess at his thinking. i just think that despite his strange preflop play, his actions later in the hand deserve more weight.
matt

[SA125]

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think a lot of people will make the right decision for the wrong reasons and the wrong decision for the right reasons.

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How does someone make the wrong decision for the right reason?

You asked for weighted avg's and not big pot etc for answers. Everyone expected to see something like QJs in hand one.

Isn't it the reality though that a significant part of limit holdem is avoiding catastrophic folds. Hand one would've been one. Hand two easy fold.

I'm surprised James, after playing as much NL as you have, you still consider making those big river laydowns in limit. NL has removed them from consideration for me.

[James282]

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How does someone make the wrong decision for the right reason?


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Because they analyze a situation using very sound reasoning given the information they have - but their information was wrong, I guess. Not worth quibbling on something like that?

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Isn't it the reality though that a significant part of limit holdem is avoiding catastrophic folds. Hand one would've been one. Hand two easy fold.


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I guess, but in this day and age it should be obvious that the fold didn't cost me the whole pot. The amount of the mistkae is obviously debatable and I really don't think many here are qualified to quantify it(including me). I was simply wondering if most people thought it was as close as I did, if the BB bet out if it would be closer/swing the other way, and so on. It seems obvious to me now that I should have called..as I have stated a few times already in this thread. I have not attempted to defend folding, I have simply tried to explain my reasoning and experience that lead me to make that mistake. I don't really appreciate your didactic tone as obviously I know things like 'you should avoid folds if the pot is so big that it is hard to wrap your mind around a range where a fold would be good.'

You didn't contribute anything at all to this thread besides reiterating what has already been said in a pretty rude way.