Red Sox Trade Rumor

[niss]

Two things.

1. Since 2000, Helton has had as many as 59 doubles in a season. Even in what some consider to be his "down" years (the last two, in which his HR and RBI totals are way down), he has had at least 40 doubles. So to say his doubles will go through the roof implies that he will have, say, more than 60 doubles a year, given his recent stats. That's nuts.

2. There's little dispute that Helton is not a speed demon. His big doubles numbers are largely influenced by the large outfield in Coors, where his line drives into the gaps run forever (and where outfielders have a whole lot more turf to cover) and give him ample time to get to 2nd (he's even had as many as 5 triples in a year, which for a slow guy is pretty incredible). I am not an AL fan and do not watch much AL baseball, so I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong -- but I can't see how (a) the smaller ballpark and (b) the green monster will result in *more* doubles for him. Those balls that in Coors roll forever seemingly would, more often than not, come back to the outfielder a whole lot more quickly in Fenway, which can't help the slow-footed Helton.

These are my thoughts. I'm happy to hear why I'm wrong.

[James282]

Doubles fly off the monster like it's going out of style.

James

[rwperu34]

The value in the deal is the money. PECOTA has Helton worth $31m over the next five years. I'm all for trading for veteran talent if your a contending team, but usually I like it to be a clear upgrade. PECOTA has Lowell worth $33m and Youkilis at $52m over the same time frame. No way do I go for this deal if I'm the Sox unless the Rockies are eating $75m.

[kyleb]

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Lowell doesn't matter much either, trust me.

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He's still at least an average hitter who plays really good D, no?

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Salary considerations.

[kyleb]

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These are my thoughts. I'm happy to hear why I'm wrong.

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Park factors. Period.

[kyleb]

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The value in the deal is the money. PECOTA has Helton worth $31m over the next five years. I'm all for trading for veteran talent if your a contending team, but usually I like it to be a clear upgrade. PECOTA has Lowell worth $33m and Youkilis at $52m over the same time frame. No way do I go for this deal if I'm the Sox unless the Rockies are eating $75m.

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$75m lol.

You aren't factoring in the additional wins Helton gives you right now. Have we learned nothing from BBTN's "marginal wins wrt playoffs" article that has been discussed ad nauseum in here?

[rwperu34]

Helton vs Lowell, MORP;
<ul type="square">[*]2007-Lowell $11.475m, Helton $11.175m[*]2008-Lowell $9.325m, Helton $9.325[*]2009- Lowell $8m, Helton $7.2m[/list]
Helton will make $9.6m more in 2007. After that, Helton is owed another $73.5m whereas Lowell will become a free agent. I just dont think it's a big enough of an upgrade to get locked into an extra five years for a player who probably won't be worth it.

[kyleb]

Helton hits .310/.422/.517 on the road (BP, 2005 entry). Lowell is projected to hit .273/.333/.441 this year in Fenway. That's a ridiculous amount of OPS at a position that the Red Sox do not have a star player at. MORP factors in defense for Lowell, and Youkilis plays defense at about the same rate as Lowell.

You aren't looking at the right numbers. This is a ridiculous upgrade at a corner IF position, and will add wins - crucial wins that are going to be needed to pass the Yankees in the AL East or to beat an AL Central wildcard team.

[youtalkfunny]

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This is a ridiculous upgrade at a corner IF position, and will add wins - crucial wins...

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Hell, getting rid of Julian Tavarez will add wins, even if we just give him away.

Let's hope we can deal him before he sparks another meaningless pre-season brawl.

[NT!]

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This is a ridiculous upgrade at a corner IF position, and will add wins - crucial wins...

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Hell, getting rid of Julian Tavarez will add wins, even if we just give him away.

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i think we will miss his pussywillow swipe of death vs. the devil rays tho