smart baseball fans analyze these trades.

[James282]

So I am in a very serious scoresheet league that keeps 8 major leaguers and 3 minor leaguers every year. You can keep minor leaguers in place of major leaguers if you want. In the draft each year, each team can lose up to 8 guys and after every 2 guys you lose you can 'pull back' another guy. I am an expansion team, and have absolutely no hope of doing anything this year since I am very very very young. That said, I've been offered the following trades:

Buehrle for Fernando Martinez

Anthony Reyes for Chris Iannetta.

My thinking is that I should take both of these, because Buehrle is unlikely to help me a lot down the road and what he does this year is basically irrelevant since I have no hope of competing. I have Lincecum, Gallardo, Clay Buchholz, Clayton Kershaw, and a few lesser known minor league pitchers that should fill in nicely when they come up. Martinez could be something super special, or he could blaze out, but I think realistically I can't really compete for 3 years when it's very unliekly that buehrle will be able to contribute to a championship level team.

As far as Iannetta and Reyes, both project to be the types of players that could contribute on very good teams. Iannetta's value is increased because Scoresheet does not make park adjustments when simulating games. For those that don't know, scoresheet is not a categories league. It simulates games based on real baseball stats like OBP, SLG, etc based on how your team did that week. A catcher who can get 860-900 ops is HUGE in a league like this - much more so than in real life baseball when you adjust for park factors. Reyes still projects to be a very valuable starter, but I think I should take the risk here. What do you guys think?

James

[Your Mom]

I take both trades. If you're not doing anything in the next year or two, what's the point of Buehrle? I don't really like Reyes all that much and think Iannetta has a pretty nice upside at a tough position to fill. Without looking at the numbers, I don't think Reyes will ever strike out enough guys to really move to the upper echelon of pitchers. At this point, Iannetta could rise to the top echelon of catchers.

[James282]

yeah i kinda feel the same way. i was more nervous about the martinez and buehrle trade because martinez is so damned young, but hopefully i'd be able to protect him long term. i'm torn.

James

[Your Mom]

Yeah, I guess you'd have to evaluate who you would protect and if you would even get to keep the guys you're getting. How big of a league is this? How many guys do you usually lose per year? Are you more likely to lose your guys since you have a lot of young talent?

[James282]

I'm not necessarily more likely to lose guys because a lot of teams play for the season that is coming up instead of for the future. I would never protect Buehrle because I can't build a team around him 3-4 years from now. You lose 8 guys per year, and every 2 guys you lose you can protect 1 more player. Once you lose 8 in the draft, your team is 'closed' and can no longer be drafted from. It's a 16 team league, and it's been in existence for more than 10 years so there is actually value in having a guy who could be a star someday(most leagues you cant count on being around even 3 years from now).

James

[Your Mom]

I make both trades then.

[dontmesswithme]

The buerhle one is an easy take. The Reyes one is a little more difficult but I'd probably take it too as the cards ain't looking too hot for the future.

[mbillie1]

Off topic: how do you start or join these leagues? I really want to get into something like this instead of just regular Yahoo! fantasy.

[rwperu34]

How much have you shopped Buehrle? Martinez has to rank very high in this type of league, but you still might be able to do better. If not, I like that deal a lot. On the other deal, you seem to have enough young pitching, so trading Reyes for Iannetta seems like an easy move. The only thing I wonder is if you can do better than Iannetta?

Edited to add: Don't get too caught up in a three year plan. In this type of league, you can put a competitve team on the field next season, or in the season after at the latest. If you start looking too far ahead, you will miss out on a ton of value. That being said, Martinez is doing well in AA, so we could be looking at an outfield patrolling Shea of Martinez, Beltran, and Milledge, as early as next season.

[James282]

hey mbillie, I was just asked to join by a friend of mine from high school and he worked out all the details. just go to www.scoresheet.com([censored] website but great product) and you can take a look at it there.

rwperu, I too have a sinking feeling that I could maybe get slightly more for Buehrle also, but Martinez is so good and the guy kind of wants an answer before the weekend so he can put Buehrle in his rotation for next week. As far as when I can be competitive, I literally have no chance of doing so next year. the best 8x15 120 players are basically unavailable to me(as well as the best 24 prospects coming into this year) which makes it very difficult. My goal is to see how things are shaping up after next season to consider making a run at things. My current team is(a * denotes current minor leaguer):

C: Napoli/Navarro
1B: Jacobs, Votto*, Carp*
2b: Kendrick, Callaspo, Eric Patterson*
SS: Peralta, Casilla*, Lillibridge*
3b: Iwamura, Kouzmanoff
OF: Granderson, Dukes, Kemp*, Hermida, Alou, F. Martinez*, Pie, Snelling


P: Suppan, Anthony Reyes, Looper, Carmona, Lincecum, Rodrigo Lopez, Silva, Gallardo*, Brandon Erbe*, Clay Buchholz*, Clayton Kershaw*, Donald Veal*, Franklin Morales*.

RP: Heath Bell, Jeremy Accardo, Joakim Soria, Kiko Calero, Fernando Cabrera, Carlos Villanueva, Derrick Turnbow.

I will only lose 8 of those guys in next year's draft and likewise only be able to pick 8 more guys up. The types of players taken in the first round of this year's draft were:

Chuck James, Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez, Joe Nathan, John Maine, Todd Helton, Mark Teahen, Dave Bush, joel zumaya, rafael furcal, etc. So there is some projectable major league talent available, but the real value lies in young guys who are pretty much only projection at this point and sometimes older stars(bonds and frank thomas were both unprotected for example). While I think making a run at those guys is definitely worthwhile when you are in a position to do so, doing so errantly could severely set your team back as well.

James