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#1
10-03-2007, 08:40 PM
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Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
People talk of folding KK in a cash game bc of a great read that the villain is holding AA.
Can this over the course of a lifetime be a profitable play. Can someone crunch the numbers and tell how many times you must be correct to make this play profitable? It seems to me that it is always going to be the case that going with KK preflop will be more profitable than picking and choosing spots to fold or call. Thoughts? Discuss. 
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#2
10-03-2007, 09:04 PM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
Assuming you are talking about preflop, I think yeah it can be profitable if you are deep stack enough (100BB +) and have a good read on vilain and the action has been crazy in a big multiway pot.
That said the only time I folded it, the other guy also had KK.
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#3
10-03-2007, 09:13 PM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
Also assume its a normal game and not some 8 way all in and ur last to act....
ASSUMING THERE ARE TWO PLAYERS ACTIVE.... NOW ANSWER
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#6
10-03-2007, 10:24 PM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
It is possible to find places to fold KK preflop correctly, sometimes even without a specific read on a player. That there are also times to call all-in with KK, and that you may come out ahead by calling all pushes with KK, does not mean you can't do even better.
In very low level games, you can't be confident that you are up against AA without a specific read, since so many players overvalue hands like TT or AK. Despite the generally passive play, a push will often be a weaker hand. At higher levels, the general level of aggression is high enough that players will 4-bet all-in with a wide enough range that folding KK is incorrect. There are some games between these two at which typical players are passive and predictable enough that you can comfortably fold KK to a push from an unknown player when one of the players involved is in early position. One common misconception is that you have to be very sure that you are up against AA in order to fold. In fact, AA is more of a favorite over KK than KK is a favorite over {QQ-KK, AK}, so if the push was a big overbet, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA instead of {QQ-KK, AK} means you should fold. Another common misconception is that the small probability someone has AA before you see the action tells you much about the probability you are up against AA in the rare scenario that someone represents a huge amount of strength. Most of the time when you have KK, your opponents do not have AA, but they also usually either fold to your raise or call. When you see someone 4-bet all-in over your reraise, or push over your 4-bet, you have to ask how often your opponents would do that with less than KK.
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#7
10-03-2007, 10:39 PM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
[ QUOTE ]
It is possible to find places to fold KK preflop correctly, sometimes even without a specific read on a player. That there are also times to call all-in with KK, and that you may come out ahead by calling all pushes with KK, does not mean you can't do even better. In very low level games, you can't be confident that you are up against AA without a specific read, since so many players overvalue hands like TT or AK. Despite the generally passive play, a push will often be a weaker hand. At higher levels, the general level of aggression is high enough that players will 4-bet all-in with a wide enough range that folding KK is incorrect. There are some games between these two at which typical players are passive and predictable enough that you can comfortably fold KK to a push from an unknown player when one of the players involved is in early position. One common misconception is that you have to be very sure that you are up against AA in order to fold. In fact, AA is more of a favorite over KK than KK is a favorite over {QQ-KK, AK}, so if the push was a big overbet, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA instead of {QQ-KK, AK} means you should fold. Another common misconception is that the small probability someone has AA before you see the action tells you much about the probability you are up against AA in the rare scenario that someone represents a huge amount of strength. Most of the time when you have KK, your opponents do not have AA, but they also usually either fold to your raise or call. When you see someone 4-bet all-in over your reraise, or push over your 4-bet, you have to ask how often your opponents would do that with less than KK. [/ QUOTE ] Your pretty wrong. Reading a book might help you some. You never fold KK preflop enless the guy show's you Aces. It is a huge mistake. Your EV over time is always going to be higher. Plus, even if Villian has aces 50% of the time, you are going to outdraw him 17-19% of the time. Which means your STILL going to make money. Never fold kings preflop.
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#9
10-04-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It is possible to find places to fold KK preflop correctly, sometimes even without a specific read on a player. [/ QUOTE ] Your pretty wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not wrong. This discussion has happened here many times. As a result of one of the past discussions, the SSNL FAQ was changed from saying never fold KK preflop to say, "Sometimes laying Kings down preflop is correct. Most of the time it is not." [ QUOTE ] Reading a book might help you some. [/ QUOTE ] No amount of reading books will make me agree with everyone, since not everyone agrees. Unfortunately, some people will always be rude to anyone who dares to disagree with their misconceptions. One day, you might be able to tell the difference between someone who disagrees because he doesn't know the basics and someone who disagrees because he sees far beyond the basics. Today, work on learning the difference between "your" and "you're." [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] One common misconception is that you have to be very sure that you are up against AA in order to fold. In fact, AA is more of a favorite over KK than KK is a favorite over {QQ-KK, AK}, so if the push was a big overbet, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA instead of {QQ-KK, AK} means you should fold. [/ QUOTE ] even if Villian has aces 50% of the time, you are going to outdraw him 17-19% of the time. Which means your STILL going to make money. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. You seem to have ignored the times you get outdrawn when you are ahead. You get outdrawn more than 19% of the time when you are ahead, as I clearly indicated. This is primarily because you are only about a 70:30 favorite when you are ahead of Ax, while you are worse than an 80:20 underdog when behind. If you are up against AA 50% of the time, you are an underdog against the range, and you will not make money if you are calling a huge overbet, just as I said. This is a standard calculation which has been performed in many past discussions. For example, if your opponent has the odd range of AQs+,AA, then you are behind 6 times and ahead 6 times, and your equity is 42.7%, so you need to get about 4:3 odds to call, and you can't profitably call an overbet push of more than 3 times the pot even though you are ahead 50% of the time. The reason I brought it up was to head off the common but incorrect statement that you have to be 90% sure that you are up against AA to fold. You made a version of that error when you said you have to see AA to fold. In fact, you may have to fold when you are ahead a slight majority of the time, just as when you have one pair on the flop and are up against either a flush draw or a set.
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#10
10-04-2007, 01:31 AM
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Re: Ever +EV to fold KK in a cash game?
The situation to lay down kings preflop is very situational. Occurs maybe 2% of the times you hold kings. Someone with Aces, as deep stacked as you ( 250+ BB ) has to flat push all in.
Even if you have a good read that he has aces, you call with the expectancy to hit a king and thus, a big pot. But no good players, are going to push 250BB's in straight with aces, you make no money that way. It's basically the same arguement as Minimum Raises. Minimum raises are so situational, that 95% of the time, there a really dumb idea. Either you got the absolute nuts ( which you dont raise someone betting into you ) or a vulnerable hand and min raising isnt a good option. Were not talking about when your ahead. It's the same %'s when they have queens. But there's a much wider range of hand that you have beat, then beat you. Such as AK-QQ-JJ maybe even 10-10 depending on who and where your playing against. Thus over time, its never a good idea ( short of a very unique situation ) to fold kings pf. But regardless, no one's ever going to have Ace's against your kings 50% of the time.
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