Two Plus Two Newer Archives 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
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#11
11-30-2007, 06:29 PM
 RiverHebrew2 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,293
Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?

Call flop and fold if unimproved on later streets.
#12
11-30-2007, 06:31 PM
 cbboy Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Ottawa, ON Posts: 2,234
Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?

I shove the flop.
#13
11-30-2007, 06:40 PM
 keikiwai Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Hi. My name is Rosa Kato <3 Posts: 19,541
Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?

[ QUOTE ]
Call flop and fold if unimproved on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

this why i don't like calling, cause it's too tempting to do this, and it is often enough not the correct action if his pfrr range is wide enough
#14
11-30-2007, 07:22 PM
 lkjhgfdsa Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 96
Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?

kowl.
#15
11-30-2007, 08:30 PM
 MrHoobris Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Vancouver Posts: 170
Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?

The math behind shoving all-in:

Pot size: 96+84 = 180
Left to Shove: 396-46 = 350
Final Pot Size: 396*2 = 792

Equity when called (included 2 combos of A8s that represent tilt calls):

Board: Jd 8c 7c
Hand 0: 28.324% { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 71.676% { 77+, AcKc, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, JTs, Jc9c, Jd9d, T9s, AJo }

Let X=P(Fold),
EV(Shove)=0= 180*X + (1-X)(792*0.28-350)
X = 41.6%

His calling range represents 6.90% of total combos, so he needs to be cbetting a total of:
6.90%/(1-41.6%) = 11.82%

Now if there ever was a board to check give-up on for a PFR, this would be it, so i don't think he's c-bet folding enough here for a shove to be profitable. This changes if he's the type to insta-cbet all flops after 3-betting preflop.

At the same time, we have too much hand to fold, so I agree that call and reevaluate is the best option.

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