theory question

[iRockPoker03]

lets say your playing a cash game blinds 50/100 and you both have 10,000 stacks and you can see your opponents cards for this hand

you are dealt AQo on the button, raise it to 300 and see your opponent has 43s which he then reraises to 1200

would you reraise him enough to make him fold so he wont suckout?

call and let him hang himself?

make a small raise to build the pot?

idk just some random thoughts running through my head

any opinions appreciated

[mbsocc1346]

Re-raise to get the money in with the equity the highest. Normal answer i suspect.

[Gonso]

No, this is a call. Your informational advantage here has a tremendous value. You're immune to bluffs and have position, that's worth quite a bit.

If you shove here, you're going to take down the pot and only get 1,200 from his stack. If you call, you'll have position on this guy and there's a chance you get a lot more out of him. It's going to be very hard for him to hit a flop at all, and you should have an easy time pushing him off a 1 pair hand or weak draws easily enough when he hits those.

If stacks were smaller, then it would be more in your interest to end the hand.

[RarocASP]

[ QUOTE ]
No, this is a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is def the best line w/ position

[mce86]

If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[greggg230]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true. If he got all-in pre-flop, he'd be 60-40 to win the hand, but his chances are much higher since he'd be seeing a flop. He could get his opponent to fold, for example, on a board like 4QJ pretty easily. He also has position, making him a much bigger favorite.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

MCE, you're overvaluing his hand... he only has 40% if he gets the full showdown value of his hand, which you don't have to give him.

It's not that it isn't a good thing to get AI as a 60-40 favorite, it is, but given the situation you're likely to increase your EV by taking a different line.

If you raise here, what do you expect will happen? Let's break it down:

1) Almost always he will let the hand go and you'll pick up a small pot. You get 12bb out of him in addition to whichever blind he wasn't playing, and your 3bb back as well, so you're earning $1,600 or $1,700 cash here. Not very much, but not bad.

2) If he comes over the top, which is probably all-in, you'll instacall and be a 3-2 favorite for the pot, and you'll earn about 20bb ($2,000) worth of EV.

3) If he comes over the top and had money behind, you're best option is to shove and get him to fold, since now he will have enough equity to call you and be correct. That would be a massive mistake, but it's just not going to happen. Again, you going to play for stacks as a 3-2 fav and have an EV of $2k.

The reason I'm saying raising is a bad play is that I think you can be much more profitable than this by calling and trying to extract more from this player by getting HIM to commit more money when behind. Again, you not only know his cards, you have a good hand and position also. Let's look at some scenarios if you just call him:

1) If you both miss and he leads out, you can reraise or shove, which he won't be able to call. If he shoves, you can happily call, because you will be a bigger favorite now.

2) If he hits a small hand, you'll probably be able to take this away from him. It will be hard for him to call with bottom pair/no kicker which is what he's most likely to hit. If he picks up a draw, you can shut down the action by shoving (unless it's a monster draw that gives him enough equity to call, see #3).

3) If he makes a strong hand (which will be VERY infrequently) he won't be able to extract anything from you, unless you also have enough equity to play for stacks.

4) You improve your hand.

Obviously there aren't going to be very many flops that he'll be able to play for stacks with, and even then you'll know when he has one.

Here's a guy that 3-bet you OOP preflop with 43s, and saw you flat call it. The idea is that you might get more money out of the guy when he fires off a barrel or two, and then force him to fold and make more money while not risking a showdown at all.

Plus he's not going to be able to continue on many flops, even on a bunch where he pairs and is ahead of you. There's no reason to be afraid of taking a flop with this guy.



Cliff notes

Taking the pot down immediately is profitable, but you're likely to get even more value out of him taking a flop and getting him to put more money in later. Most flops will not threaten you - since you know his cards, you have relatively little risk while you have a shot at getting maybe his entire stack.

If you 4-bet him preflop, he's just going to fold and you won't be giving him a chance to make bigger mistakes.

[Acevader]

This really is a pretty stupid question. If you know your opponents cards and he doesn't know that you know then you can make mega-money off him absolutely irrespective of your position or your own hole cards. I'd play any player in the world blind to my own hole cards provided I can at least see theirs!

Anyway, I call the raise and then out-play him from there (not that it would be hard in these circumstances). If you hit you can let him bluff off, if you both don't hit you can let him bluff off and if he hits you can probably bluff him out unless he hits two pair or better or a strong draw. Those that say push preflop need their heads seen to!

[Acevader]

"Taking the pot down immediately is profitable, but you will get even more value out of him taking a flop and getting him to put more money in later. Very few flops will threaten you - since you know his cards, you have no risk while you have a shot at getting maybe his entire stack."

FYP

[Gonso]

Acevader, you look like you're generally agreeing with me but there's a couple of soft spots in your responses:

First, my post didn't need fixing - I used the terms "you're likely to get more value" and "relatively little risk" rather than use absolute terms for a reason. You are overlooking the risk that, if you just call, the villian will not put in any further chips unless his hand becomes better than yours, and also that you are not able to push him off bottom pair. Obviously I think the benefits outweight the risk, but there is still a risk worth mentioning.

If you shoved preflop with your superior hand here, it is impossible for you to make a mistake at any point. The most EV play he could make here is to fold. But if you call as I suggested, even with perfect information about his hand there is still the possibility you can make a mistake if your opponent plays perfectly. If he does flop, say, a 4 and check-raises you AI for example, he's forced you to make a mistake, which is why I had to qualify my statements.

Second,

[ QUOTE ]
This really is a pretty stupid question. If you know your opponents cards and he doesn't know that you know then you can make mega-money off him absolutely irrespective of your position or your own hole cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously anyone will make huge money of they could see their opponents cards, we're trying to get max value though.

Your best option will not always be to take a flop and try to outplay the guy as opposed to raising, which is what we're talking about here. Stack sizes and position will still matter often enough in terms of determining how you expect to extract the most EV and how you can play hands. In situations you will even have to fold preflop if the stacks were small enough.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play any player in the world blind to my own hole cards provided I can at least see theirs!

[/ QUOTE ]

If they knew you were blind to your own cards, you'd be looking at a neutral EV game against a player who knew what they were doing. Equity vs a random hand will still give them FTP solutions.