Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)

[Vammakala]

NVM

[fizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Until someone tears apart my estimates, I will use a 4/8 rule for SCs instead of the 5/10 rule for PP’s.


[/ QUOTE ]

This should probably work since a standard PFR is 3-4 BB of a 100 BB stack (3-4%).

However, I don't think your estimates work for when you're OOP for reasons mentioned in a post above. The implied odds are much worse and you won't be able to take nearly as much of the effective stack.

[4_2_it]

Nice post. This one belongs in the next SSNL digest and should be added to the sticky.

[Jouster777]

Great point on position fizzle. It also applies to sets but it is just part of the considerations that adjusts your range toward the 5 rather than the 10.

You are right the effect is much greater when potentially drawing. I'll throw out some more estimates and maybe you or others can refine them:
1. you have a 5.6% chance of flopping big made hand, ~90+% equity =>
Expectation 60% of effective stack in position
Expectation 40% of effective stack OOP
2. you have a ~7% chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw, ~50% equity =>
Expectation 25% of effective stack in position
Expectation 15% of effective stack OOP
3. you have a ~13% chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD, ~35% equity =>
Expectation 7% of effective stack in position
Expectation 2.5% of effective stack OOP

EV(IP) = .056*.6S+.07*.25S+.13*.07S-.75B = 0
EV(OOP)= .056*.4S+.07*.15S+.13*.025S-.75B = 0

IP situation: 0.08*S=B or our preflop bet should be <8% on average
OOP situation: 0.05*S=B or our preflop bet should be <5% on average

Leading to:
IP 5-10 rule
OOP 3-7 rule

[fizzle]

[ QUOTE ]

Leading to:
IP 5-10 rule
OOP 3-7 rule

[/ QUOTE ]

Your numbers seem ok I guess, as guestimates.

For OOP, that rules basically lets you always call with SC's in the BB to a standard raise. This makes sense, especially to a steal raise, where you have some maneuverability with 1 pairs or air as well.

I suppose extra callers would also help immensely with both your pot odds and implied odds, but I've never seen any math done with that. I suppose that's something else you can factor in when the number is inbetween the upper and lower bounds.

[BukNaked36]

[ QUOTE ]
If I read Goofyballer's calculation correctly, she(?) subtracted out made hands from combo draws and combo draws from standard draws. If that is true, the top groups should not be subsets of the lower groups.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just an fyi - Goofyballer is male.

[jskinn04]

OP is tl;dr. J/k. I read it all. OP is the nuts. Thanks for doing the hard work. I wanted to expand and share some thoughts on playing these speculative hands: sooted connectors, sooted one-gaps, sooted aces, and small PPs effectively. I think this advice is solid. Oh yeah, I just now came up the % of stack worth calling with these hands. Those numbers could be wacko. I'm not sure. Feedback is welcome.

<u>Sooted Aces:</u>
Value #1 Can make nut flush and stack people with non-nut flush.
Ideal Pot Type: Multiway unraised.
Good Flop: NFD.
Way to Play the Hand: Hopefully see the draw for free or cheaply. Bad to push out worse draws flush draws and get heads up with TPTK-type made hand.
Importance of position: Very high. Being in a multiway unraised pot is infinitely easier from late position. Seeing draws cheaply is much easier, too. A lot of the implied odds of making flush over flush gets killed when having to call a preflop raise so I don't like to take a sooted ace into a multiway raised pot.

Value #2 Flopping two pairs and winning a large pot from someone holding AK or AQ.
Ideal Pot Type: Heads up. Raised. Villain with TPTK will fear two pair and sets much more in a multiway pot. Implied odds are not as good there.
Good Flop: Top two pairs.
Way to Play the Hand: If only the ace flops, call a small bet and fold to further action. With two pairs try to start building a pot as soon as possible. Make modest bets and raises whenever possible to facilitate getting all-in.
Importance of Position: Very important. Being heads up is important because TPTK is less likely to go broke multiway, fearing sets/2 pairs. Implied are much worse that way IMO. If the NFD is flopped, it's much easier to either see it for cheap or to semi-bluff villains out of the pot from position.

When to play sooted aces: I play weak sooted aces (AJ-ish and down) from late position. I limp after limpers. I call a raiser OTB if no one else has called and it isn't likely to get reraised behind. If the pot is unopened, I raise from CO or OTB to steal the blinds. I'd only call a raise from the blinds if the raise was small and I thought I was getting good implied odds.

How much are sooted aces worth paying to play preflop? I don't have OP printed so I'm going from memory but I think the chances of flopping the NFD or two pairs+ is 9% + 3% = 12%. I'd guesstimate winning about 1/3 of the effective stacks when these hands hit (NFD is just a draw after all). Thus, I wouldn't be willing to call more than 4% of my stack to see a flop with a sooted ace.

<u>Sooted connectors and sooted one gaps</u>
Okay. So I got sick or formatting stuff.

Caveat: These cards are very profitable but I think they must be played in a high variance way in order to make that money. Talk to Doyle.

Obvious observation: Many times these hands flop non-nut draws. It is exceptionally important to either fastplay or fold non-nut draws in multiway pots. I can't think of a quicker way to go broke than overcalling flop bets with a six-high flush draw. I don't take free cards when I flop flush draws or flush draw + other outs when my flush draw could break me.

Another obvious observation Don't draw when the hand could be dead. Doesn't matter if it's possibly live. Let the pot go.

Trickiness: I like OESD on two-flush boards because I can get paid a lot when someone thinks I'm over-betting a busted flush draw on the end.

Preflop: I'll usually take a flop the cheapest way possible in any pot that hasn't been reraised or raised big. I don't care if I'm playing multiway or heads up. Don't care about in position or out of position. I'll open limp from EP or sometimes I'll raise. Same goes for almost all positions. I'll open raise a little more as I get closer to the button, but I mostly like to limp these cards. Oh, sometimes I throw in a reraise if I think the OR is light and will lay down.

Flopping one pair: I've got to be heads up to care. Otherwise I'm folding all one-pair hands to any reasonable bet. If I'm heads up and in position I'll call one bet with middle pair and try to steal the pot on the turn or maybe play for a showdown. It varies. If I'm OOP I just fold. If I flop top pair, I'll call a bet in position or OOP and play for a showdown. I'll lay down to a second barrel, usually, though. Some might say this strategy is exploitable but I'd play TPTK the same way (only not folding it to the second barrel very often).

The strategy I have one cardinal rule that I try never to violate. If I flop any of those 20-25% percent of hands we've been talking about in this post, I play to get my money all-in, but I do it in PSB increments. I don't care if I'm in position or OOP. If I bet and get raised, I 3-bet. If I'll have less than a PSB left for the next street then I push. Simple. If I get called, I pot it on the next street. If I'm still called and I've got a lot left for a river bluff I'll frequently fire as big as I can there too. It takes STONES to call three PSB with top pair. A hidden gem about this strategy is that it tends to push out better flush draws so I don't hit and lose big pots. It also tends to get people giving me lots of money and then folding without a showdown. Try it.

Leading into the raiser: I'll almost always do it. I'm not trying to c/r very often unless the stacksizes are right for c/r all-in. Even then I'd rather bet sometimes. I don't want a free card coming off. If he's weak enough to give one I'd rather steal the pot. If he's got one pair I want to put him in a game theoretic bind.

Modifications: Some players I know won't raise the flop without a HUGE hand. I'm not 3-betting that player. I'm calling if I think I have enough implied odds to try to hit. If not, I'll tuck my tail and fold.

If I get raised on the flop and I think this player is testing me then I'm definitely 3-betting and potting it into him on the next street. I actually like being OOP here just as much as being in position.

Bluffing the river: If I just know the other guy isn't laying down, I don't burn my money. I'll give up with a busted draw much of the time. However, he only has to fold 50% of the time for a roughly PSB bluff to be the right play. I'll make sure to make PSB value bets when I think I've got him. Even if he doesn't pay off when I've got a made hand, that means he's folding to me when I did have a busted draw and decide to bluff.

The corollary: Small pocket pairs. Preflop I'll play the same way as suited connectors when I have a small pocket pair. When I flop a set I'll play the same way as when I flop one of the 25% of good hands with a suited connector. Adding sets to my range of fastplay hands really puts someone with hands as good as AA in a bad spot.

I found this strategy to be very hard to play against with deep stacks. I think it's very strong from a game theoretic perspective. Thus, I adopted it.

Stack Depth Requirements: I'd like to be deep enough to fire three full PSB's if possible.

Say someone raises to 4BB from EP and gets two callers. After I call the pot with be 17BB. (Hero expendatures, potsize)

Flop(4BB, 17BB). PSB, call.
Turn(21BB, 51BB). PSB, call.
River(72BB, 152BB). PSB, call.
(Hero uses 224BB).

The preflop call is only about 2% on my stack but I'd call more up to about 5% because the pot is multiway and I could make some bigger $$$ when I flop two pairs against an overpair type hand.

Say someone raises to 4BB, Hero is the only caller.
Flop (4BB, 9BB). PSB, call.
Turn (13BB, 27BB). PSB, call.
River (40BB, 51 BB). PSB, call.
(Hero uses 91 BB).

The preflop call is 4.5 or ~%5 of my stack.

I'm not sure how to quantify what the correct calling percent is but for me I want the number to be close to 5% of the effective stacks so I can play the most profitably after the flop.

I'm really interested to hear comments about my thought processes here. If you hate what I'm suggesting, I'd like to hear some counter strategies so I can use them against guys that play this way.

[sdplayerb]

great numbers.
you want better than 7-1 with a pp also, since you won't always get paid off.

i definitely want better implied odds with suited connectors, always at least 20-1 (if multiway that number goes down).

your numbers really make me feel a lot better about it.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow - crazy math. I hope you apply this analysis instead of just leaving it at this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, I just need someone like Pokey to help me figure out how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
So, basically, it's a 12% chance (~7.5:1) to flop something you'll want to shove.

So, it's near the 6.5:1 that a pocket pair gives you, plus the little something extra for flopping the other kinds of draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to make the point that thinking this way is dangerous; if you get it in on the flop with a set you'll lose 1 out of 10 times, but if you get it all in on the flop with the made hands/combo draws you flop with SCs, you'll lose your stack 1 out of 3 times. For this reason, even though the odds of flopping a made hand/combo draw is about the same as flopping a set, you need better implied odds to call with SCs to account for the times you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but won't those EXTRA times when you flop a regular draw and able to play it profitably add some extra equity to your hand? Almmost to the point where SC equity ALMOST equals to the PP4SET equity?...

(I'm just wondering, not REAL big on math...)

Aslo, somewhat OT - what does "tl;dr" stand for? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]
After reading goofy's analysis, it looks like you can profitably play suited connectors 45s - JTs with the 5/10 rule considering the implied odds.
One issue at hand is that the 5/10 rule assumes a reasonble chance you'll net an opponent's stack when you hit your hand. This is fine for the made hands because all of them are beating an over pair. The combo draws are not as good because if you push and your opponent folds, you are getting the correct implied odds to call preflop with the 5/10 rule in the first place. If you push and he calls, you'll hit your hand around 50-60% of the time. With the money already in the pot and the fold equity you might have, going all in with a combo draw is a fine play, however I question whether you have the correct implied odds preflop to get yourself into that situation. There is some math that needs to be worked out here, but it appears suited connectors are not as easy a call as pocket pairs using the 5/10 rule.
A good play may be to call with these in position only. That gives you an added advantage when your opponent checks the flop to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if you flop a ready-made flush you're either not getting paid - or you're getting stacked...