THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

[tmcdmck]

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and when you say there are "so many" other hands he could be value betting, you realise that our equity vs any set, any aces up, JT, any straight or any flush (giving him the range you suggested, excluding air) is only 30%, making it an clear fold for us.

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We only need .33 equity vs. his range to call that pot-sized river bet. Alter that range even a little and it's a call.

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i know, but i think if its going to be altered, it is to weight it towards a flush, remove the sets and some of the 2 pair hands, lowering our equity. i suppose we would add some air too, but i have no idea how much.