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#1
10-16-2007, 09:51 AM
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50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter CO: $48.70 BTN: $27.65 Hero (SB): $98.75 BB: $20.70 UTG: $58.15 MP: $45 Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $5.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50 Flop: ($12) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $18.50</font>, Hero ??? <font color="blue"> Villain is running at 46/6/1.5 over 15 hands. No real reads but seems like someone I want at my table given the stats. I can't confidently put my money in here can I?</font> 
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#4
10-16-2007, 10:00 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
mmm, really weird spot. why not just c.c the flop bet given the ridiculous odds you have to draw to a set!
IMO, villain is f'ing around with overs here.
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#5
10-16-2007, 10:01 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
yeah I'd fold here. It looks like a badly played overpair on his part. Looks like he called preflop with a premium pair as he was scared to get a walk with his good hand. The minraise pf just makes this an even more likely scenario.
Minraise post flop is awful from villain if he does indeed have an overpair, but then again, it seems likely for the average donk 
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#6
10-16-2007, 10:03 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
How maniacal is villain? I need a good read to continue with this hand. If you look at his limp re-raise PF combined with his bet/3-bet on this low flop, it's hard not to weigh his range toward big pairs here (unless he's being crazy aggro in lots of places all the time.)
I don't mind your raise pf from the SB there, I think it shows a profit against generic loose limpers. Your call of his re-raise is automatic, if only for set value. I slow down on flops without an 8, though a low board is the second best thing (other than 567r). His bet is so weak that you must raise, but I would go to ~$6.50, not $10. When he 3 bets, I dump my hand, unless I have an amazing read.
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#7
10-16-2007, 10:03 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
In hindsight I'd call the flop bet and draw to the set. Saying that however I felt there was a good chance I could take it away from him, and didn't know how to interpret the small bet.
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#8
10-16-2007, 10:18 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
[ QUOTE ]
In hindsight I'd call the flop bet and draw to the set. Saying that however I felt there was a good chance I could take it away from him, and didn't know how to interpret the small bet. [/ QUOTE ] I'd advise against that, you're 22:1 to hit a set with only 3.5:1 odds.
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#9
10-16-2007, 10:37 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In hindsight I'd call the flop bet and draw to the set. Saying that however I felt there was a good chance I could take it away from him, and didn't know how to interpret the small bet. [/ QUOTE ] I'd advise against that, you're 22:1 to hit a set with only 3.5:1 odds. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, hes getting like 9:1 on the guys flop bet. They are saying call the $1.50 when theres what like $12 in teh pot.
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#10
10-16-2007, 10:55 AM
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Re: 50nl - Right spot to fold overpair?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd advise against that, you're 22:1 to hit a set with only 3.5:1 odds. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, hes getting like 9:1 on the guys flop bet. They are saying call the $1.50 when theres what like $12 in teh pot. [/ QUOTE ] Plus implied odds.
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