50nl 6max: 3 hands leading to 4th confrontation

meleader2 · #1 10-26-2007, 06:51 PM

villain is 56/3/.05 over 34 hands (basically since i sat down, new villain)
all four hands are same villain

by street, villains AF is .33 / 1.67 / oo

these are the 3 hands leading to my call on the 4th. is it a good one? i SNAP called this, checking with intention to call any bet.

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $54.95
BB: $63.40
UTG: $93.95
CO: $20
BTN: $52.25

CO posts $0.50
Pre-Flop: Q

A

dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO checks, BTN raises to $2, Hero calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50, CO folds

Flop: ($6.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4

7

(3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $4, Hero raises to $15.50, BB raises to $61.40 and is All-In, BTN folds, Hero calls $37.45 and is All-In

Turn: ($116.40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($116.40) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $116.40 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Q A (a pair of Sevens) and LOST (-$54.95 NET)
BB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A (two pair, Kings and Sevens) and WON $113.40 (+$58.45 NET)

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HAND #2
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $50
UTG: $104.85
CO: $93.20
BTN: $19.90
SB: $63

Pre-Flop: Q

J

dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 8

T

9

(3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, SB folds

Turn: ($4.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $4.50, UTG raises to $102.85 and is All-In, Hero calls $43.50 and is All-In

River: ($100.50) 3

(2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $100.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Q J (a straight, King high) and WON $97.50 (+$47.50 NET)
UTG showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a straight, Jack high) and LOST (-$50 NET)

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HAND #3
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $117.35
UTG: $49.85
BTN: $86.15
SB: $71.65

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, UTG calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 7

9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8

(2 Players)
Hero bets $3.75, UTG calls $3.75

Turn: ($11.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($20.25) A

(2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $39.85 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $20.25 Pot ($1 Rake)
UTG mucked and WON $19.25 (+$9.25 NET)

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HAND #4
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $107.35
BB: $59.10
UTG: $86.15
BTN: $71.40

Pre-Flop: J

J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3) T

6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($27) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $45.60 and is All-In, Hero calls $45.60...

TilTandWiN · #2 10-26-2007, 06:58 PM

Nice to see a history between players.

I am quite confused tho - in the 3rd hand you fold to a river shove, and on this you insta call it - IMO you are either behind or infront in both hands - Villan seems a little fishy (from the 2nd hand) - however constantly SHOVES with a hand that he could easily see as being good.

This seems like a betting tell to me - I think you are behind in the last hand, and behind in the 77 hand.

A set feels likley (one he made on the flop). Please PM results.

TilTandWiN · #3 10-26-2007, 07:00 PM

Actually he could have a straight in the last hand. I think you should be raising to $2.00 pre flop too instead of $1.50.

Khumalo · #4 10-26-2007, 07:29 PM

I lead the turn in hand 3. But you're asking about hand 4 ... I'm not sure about the snap call in this spot. You showed three previous hands and in two of them villain overbet with TPTK+, and his river bet on the third one looks more legit than not, given how scary the board is (though your turn c/c and river checks complicate matters.)

What argues in favor of a call for hand 4 is that he's not repping a whole lot: KT, 97, and I think he usually raises a set (or a smaller 2 pair) on that turn (given hand 2 and the increased drawiness of the board.) It's hard to imagine him playing a naked K like this. I also wonder about a donkishly FPSed AA.

You're getting 1.6 to 1, so you need %38 equity to break even.

This is a river shoving range that you're 0 EV against here given pot odds: {for value: TT, 66, 88, 55, AA, KT, AK, 97, T8, 68, 65, Kh9h; as a bluff: QT, 99, T9, JT, A9}

So call if you think he can be making a play with (roughly) as many as 5 of his board-relevant combos here (I have him turning some made hands into bluffs, which is a little unusual, but you can try substituting other 'air' combos if you can think of some, like AQ or whatever.) Or you can discount his sets and some of his two pairs (or AA, especially!) just enough that he needs to be bluffing with like one less combo for you to call.

EMc · #5 10-26-2007, 08:44 PM

ml2,

Based on history, especially that 3rd hand, leans me toward a call

meleader2 · #6 10-26-2007, 09:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ml2,

Based on history, especially that 3rd hand, leans me toward a call

[/ QUOTE ]

if it wasn't for that hand, i wouldn't have called.

Q7o for the busted str8 draw <-- results

that said, i'd have only paid him on his 3 outs as opposed to his other 8, whether it was a K or a Q i'd have called either way.