NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat

[kindergartencop]

co is a total monkey hes like 50/6. button is a solid tag. other than that nothing crazy has happened since ive been at table.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $44.50
CO: $50.20
BTN: $225.15
Hero (SB): $55.70
BB: $50

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds, CO calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $48.20 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $91.40</font>, Hero ?

[QuietEarner]

insta call

[EMc]

Hmmm this is not as clear cut as a normal set on this flop given the action and the stats.

I think I can let this go, ill probably call 666 or 777

[QuietEarner]

He says button is solid tag, so I think any suited connectors would be in his stealing range, plus many over pairs 88-AA. He says CO is a monkey so he would be discounted some, unless his agg factor is really low.

Yes, you may have been unlucky and flopped an underset, but I think the buttons range, and discounting a monkey you call.

that would be my thought process anyway.

I think agg factor of CO is very important here.

[LOwrestling2001]

while BTN is a solid TAG, would he not play an overpair like this? esp knowing CO is a donkey. We lose to 66, 77, but we beat 67s, and JJ+ (assuming TAG wouldn't play like this with &lt; TT).

[Kasane]

I think this is a call. I wish we knew what kind of tag button is, getting a better feel for his pf range %.

TAG knows what you know about the fishy one. Since I can see him calling with JJ+ as well as some other stuff (76s, for example), this far outweighs the times he, or fish, has you oversetted.

[Khumalo]

I played a little with ranges using Holdem Ranger, they may be way off, but I attempted to devise BTN's partially on the basis of CO's image. Note that BTN's range is weighted mostly towards overpairs+, with the occasional pair+draw. CO's range might be deemed a little too tight, but I just went with something semi-sane, given his flop action.

Note: 85+ means (85, 86, ... 8A) and the numbers in brackets after, say, JJ(20) means I'm asking the calculator to assign that card combo a 20% total probability of showing up given how the hand was played.

Board: 4d 6h 7s

Hero: 4s4c
CO: {5Ts+, 85+, 55-TT, 67, 56, 57, 53, JJ(20), QQ(20), KK(10), AA(10)}
BTN: {QQ+, JJ(75), TT(40), 99(25), 88, 77, 66, 67, 56(20), 57(20), 53, 58}

Equities: Hero = 43%; CO = 27%; BTN = 30%

So, um, call.


P.S. I have an unfortunate tendency to sometimes miss some obvious element when first making a calc-post, so let me know if you spot anything, and I'll amend.

[Profish2285]

Dont fold a set, just dont do it. You will see overpairs and two pair here often enough I think for this call to be profitable.

[Schiester]

I think bottom set is seldom good here. I'm more than happy to call villan's raise but not that of buttons reraise. I can see villan doing this with an overpair/2pair often enough to make this an instacall in a 2 way pot. However, the TAG has shoved which tells me he's ahead of an overpair and he doesn't want you drawing to a straight. I think button is more often than not on an overset... two pair / combo draw is possible but I don't think that likely.

I'm folding this myself.

[Shattered]

I think you see 66 and 77 a lot from the button, but I think you see AA, KK, 67s, and worse even more. Against that range and assuming UTG's a nutjob (even if we're generous and say his range is sets, straights, and 2 pair two thirds of the time and random other 1 pair hand the other third) folding is an enormous mistake.