simple preflop decision against shortstacker

[Requin]

Ive never worked out the math but I fold TT and AQ, call JJ

[Hoopster81]

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just fold 99

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[Isura]

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Ive never worked out the math but I fold TT and AQ, call JJ

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His range has to be really tight for this to be good. I'd say SS pushes at least AJo/ATs/77, which makes 99 a call

[Xanta]

How much does the concern of getting shoved over by the UTG raiser influence your range?

[oyvindgee]

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How much does the concern of getting shoved over by the UTG raiser influence your range?

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Not that much. But him calling and me being OOP with a dry sidepot and having to dodge possibly 4 overcards or an overpair is not a scenario I'm very happy about.

[Life]

i lean towards a fold, but if i decide to play i'd just call. im not too concerned about being oop postflop vs the bad player, he's rarely gonna make you fold the best hand.

[Triumph36]

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wtf, QTs is a call here.

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so says the shortstacker...

i toss 99 here.

[schwza]

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Ive never worked out the math but I fold TT and AQ, call JJ

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His range has to be really tight for this to be good. I'd say SS pushes at least AJo/ATs/77, which makes 99 a call

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are you assuming that utg and bb fold? 99 is only 47% against that range. i haven't done the math, but i guess if you assume utg and bb fold then enough dead money in the pot to call.

bb's pfr % is 22%. that means he's probably raising around 18%. (for most good players there's a bigger spread between utg pfr and overall pfr but utg probably does not understand position that well).

TT-AA make up 2.3% of the total hand range, so roughly .023/.18 = 13% of the time utg will have TT+. when that happens it's a bad problem for us, because if utg pushes we're pretty pc'ed and we have to call. (if we fold to a utg push, then it's a bad problem if he pushes AK).

there's also the same 2.3% chance that bb was dealt TT+, plus some change of AK and whatever he's going to want to get involved with.

so being 47% against the shorty's pushing range is not nearly enough. i'd say off the top of my head we'd need to be at least something like 55%. if we go with ATs/AJo/77 then that's JJ (57%) or AKs (55%).

[schwza]

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i lean towards a fold, but if i decide to play i'd just call. im not too concerned about being oop postflop vs the bad player, he's rarely gonna make you fold the best hand.

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one big way that bad players screw up dry side pots is by betting in dumb spots, like with a low flush draw or with A hi or something. utg is either going to make hero fold the best hand sometimes, or utg is going to stack hero when he has a bigger pp or outflops 99.

[Isura]

55% is too high I think (I think the answer is 52% but haven't checked the math). 5% total chance one of them will have an overpair, and our equity will still be 20%. I don't think that will shift our equity that much