99 against UTG raise $4.40

[usha]

[ QUOTE ]

i think your math is wrong or at least flawed, if you let him fold 30% you have to assume he calls with the top 70% of his range, then our equity should be lower.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I didn't consider this. Thinking of it, would it be bad to assume that if villain calls only 70% of the time, he will still be calling with all of his range? So, instead of thinking villain folds 77-99,AJo and calls with the rest of his range, we say: "3\10 villains will fold here ,but 7\10 will call with full range". Sounds kinda weird to think that way, but I'ld like to see what you think about this kind of approach.


[ QUOTE ]

He calls with 77, KJ, or KQ?


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't put KJ,KQ in his range. And in 4/180 viallin's are calling with 77 because they put you on AK.

[ QUOTE ]

Yes +EV, it's a push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why? What's your range for him?

[BarryLyndon]

Against hands you are likely to get called by, 88+; AQ+, you are at about 41%. You have FE against KJ, KQ, AJo, A10s. If you don't have FE against AJo, then that's fine.

Because he's a donkish opponent, you can weigh those FE hands alongside the hands he calls with. It's not massively +EV, but ~+1000 looks good to me. With 77, it's a fold. With 88, it's a fold.

Barry

[usha]

So, basically, what you are saying is that you are willing to take +cEV move which will get you 1.25BB if you win, or bust you if you loose. Isn't it too small to be +EV?

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
So, basically, what you are saying is that you are willing to take +cEV move which will get you 1.25BB if you win, or bust you if you loose. Isn't it too small to be +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's borderline and, honestly, I have a lot of HW to do when it comes to late game PF moves, so if someone else wants to jump in [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Barry

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
Against hands you are likely to get called by, 88+; AQ+, you are at about 41%. You have FE against KJ, KQ, AJo, A10s. If you don't have FE against AJo, then that's fine.



[/ QUOTE ]

Since villian is UTG it is incomplete to put such a wide range on him and assess our equity based on the percentage of times villian folds his trash.

Having fold equity against KJ, ATs, KQ and 77 is good, but it is not as significant since it is a lesser percentage of time that villians are raising with these hands. In other words, say villian probably raises JJ+/AQ+ 100% of the time, but only raises ATs 25% and 72o 5% of the time to "mix it up".

We cant then say his range is JJ+,ATs+,72o and stick it in pokerstove.

It is the reverse effect of someone opening in late position where the frequency of trashy hands is so much higher, thus we apply our fold equity so much more liberally.

In short, this is like TT+/AQo+/AQs+ most of the time and everything else a much smaller though not insignificant percentage of the time.

Jarid