jacks up vs bringin + basic odds question

[11ofhearts]

so, this fold is ok? also im not positive on odds of drawing to a full here guess now would be a good time to learn em.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.50 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.50 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (2.25 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls

6th Street - (4.25 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___raises

Hero spends entire timer trying to do the math and then autofolds

Total pot: (5.25 BB)

[chucky]

3/39 chance of getting a fh. I would check behind on 6th street. I might even call 7th just so i know if the player raises or does not raise 4 to flush on 4th.

[RustyBrooks]

In case it wasn't clear how chucky arrived at that, it's quite simple...

You have to catch a 2 or a J to get a full house. There are 2 twos and 1 jack left in the deck (because seat 5 folded a J on 3rd).

You know your 6 cards and 4 of your opponent's up cards on 6th, and the 1 up card of the 3 players who folded, for a total of 13 cards. 52 - 13 = 39

In the heat of battle I estimate the number of known cards. Heads up on 6th you know there are 10 known cards between you and your opponent, and 6 for your opponent's door cards at a full table. So at a full table a minimum of 16 cards are out. If some opponents saw 4th or 5th, etc, that number changes a little, but in general if you can't remember, using 16 known cards is kind of close enough (and 52 - 16 = 36 unknown). 34, 35, 36, 37, it doesn't matter that much (4/34 = 11.7, 4/37 = 10.8%)

In fact I tend to deliberately choose a denominator that's easy to divide so I can get a close approximation of my odds. For example, if I have 4 outs I tend to use 36 for the denominator (4/36 = 1/9). If I had 5 or 7 outs I tend to use 35 (5/35 = 1/7). If I had 6 outs I'd use 36 (6/36 = 1/6)

To me it's more important to arrive at something reasonably close in time to make a decision than it is to get exactly the right number. It gets easier with experience. This kind of thing is useful in daily life too, knowing how to fudge the numbers a little to make the math easier.

[Andy B]

You have three outs, and I find it rather unlikely that the other guy is check-raising with a worse hand. Good fold.