Bottom set super deep against a loose passive

[sh0wtime]

Guy is 67.0/2.3/.7 over 88. Comments everywhere appreciated.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($199)
MP ($150)
Hero ($451.95)
Button ($430.70)
SB ($260.65)
BB ($459.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $6, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($43) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, Button folds, BB calls $30.

Turn: ($103) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $66</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $132</font>, Hero calls $66.

River: ($367) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $198</font>,

[SammyKid11]

By the river, I think you have to fold if you trust your numbers on this guy. Someone who only raises 2.7 percent of hands has re-raised you, called you on the flop, raised you on the turn, and bet big into you on the river.

By the river, there's really only one question...would he have played AK this way? If so, then you're about 44% to win. If not (and we assume the only real possibilities for a player this passive to play in such a way is for him to have AA, QQ, or AQ), then obviously you have to fold.

Personally, if you trust his numbers, I'd say you really have to throw this one out.

[loosbastard]

2 buy-ins isn't "super" deep...but this is still a fairly weird spot.

I doubt he min 3-bets AQ...but you can't completely discount it. He would probably play AK like this. AA, while unlikely, is also possible considering PF. QQ is also very likely considering he C/C the flop and C/MR a Q turn.

Basically AK is the only hand you really can beat. As much as I hate folding to this type of villain...I think it's pretty close. Flip a coin?

[Logun]

Really the only hand that fits this mold that beats us is AA. However the last Ace on the river makes that hard to believe.

Yes it is possible he might have AQ, however I don't see a whole lot of people min RR this PF. KK maybe, QQ again - doubtful.

a Min RR PF and a c/c on an ace hi flop with a FD on board....

Realistically you should either dump to the c/r on the turn or put it all in.

[Rainclouds]

My first impression was a clear fold. But then, I ran Pokerstove

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 10 0.00 { 2c2s }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AA, QQ, AJs+, AQo+ }

which makes it, considering the pot odds, a clear call.
Suggestions for a better range are welcome.

[GrandMelon]

call

[Beanos]

Fold, you've gotta be beat. This guy is sooo passive he has a house or quads

[Logun]

Why would you call and not put it all in? I think he only has 85 or so left?

[Rainclouds]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call and not put it all in? I think he only has 85 or so left?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. Indeed, it's either shove or fold.

[sh0wtime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call and not put it all in? I think he only has 85 or so left?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. Indeed, it's either shove or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.