Calculating Odds

HoldEmNewby · #1 08-28-2007, 11:51 PM

I need a lil help on this one. Its simple enough to calculate pot odds. What I need clarification on is how to calculate the pot odds I need.

Say I'm on the turn:
I have an OESD+flush draw and i'm likely against an overpair higher than the two cards I'm holding.

15 outs, 46 cards = 15/46=32.60%
What are the pot odds I need to draw to the river, and whats the formula?

ahanley · #2 08-28-2007, 11:53 PM

You are about a 2:1 dog, you need the pot to be laying you better odds than 2:1 ( the odds against you making your hand) read the theory of poker.

Mugatu669 · #3 08-28-2007, 11:55 PM

you have a 1/3 chance of completing your draw
this = 2:1
so...as long as he isn't overbettnig the pot you are drawing profitably, + implied odds

HoldEmNewby · #4 08-29-2007, 12:01 AM

how do you calculate that i'm a 2 to 1 dog?

Mugatu669 · #5 08-29-2007, 12:03 AM

there is a 1/3 chance you will hit and a 2/3 chance that you won't hit.
1:2

traz · #6 08-29-2007, 12:03 AM

1/4 = 3:1
1/3 = 2:1

etc

HoldEmNewby · #7 08-29-2007, 12:06 AM

So with 15 outs and 46 cards left I need to be getting 1:2.06 odds to make my river call? Formula as follows (46-15)/15=2.06

Is that about right?

Edukashun · #8 08-29-2007, 12:07 AM

It's not exact but whilst playing I use the following.

With two cards to come you multiply your outs by 4
With only one card you multiply your outs by 2

In your example 15x4 = 60% (which is slightly wrong), if you get to see both cards.
I think the correct % is more like 55 but I've been working all night and I'm shattered so I don't wanna work it out.

Gospy · #9 08-29-2007, 12:07 AM

All it is is the ratio of your chance to hit versus the villains. So, if you have 1/3 chance to hit and he has a 2/3 chance to hit (by which I mean just avoid you hitting), then he's twice as likely to hit, so 2:1.

Gospy · #10 08-29-2007, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's not exact but whilst playing I use the following.

With two cards to come you multiply your outs by 4
With only one card you multiply your outs by 2

In your example 15x4 = 60% (which is slightly wrong), if you get to see both cards.
I think the correct % is more like 55 but I've been working all night and I'm shattered so I don't wanna work it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This works pretty well until you get into the 15+ out range (At which point it isn't quite as accurate), but if you have that many outs you are usually not getting away from the hand anyway.