400: Probably standard...

[Renton]

betfold as played fold

[Renton]

erg

actually this is a really tough spot.

i don't really know what you should do.

If he were 100bb, betfold would be the 100% best play.

With his stack though you are put in an extremely tough spot when he shoves because:

a. he may have JT or TT.
b. he MAYYYY have a pp with a spade AsA KsK or even 7s7 or something.
c. check your poker stove, you have almost 25% equity vs a flush, and you'd be getting like 2:1 on a push.


Honestly, I'm thinking this is a bet call. Theres probably value in a bet, and calling a shove is slightly neg ev at WORST.

As played.... i think you can probably c/c and c/f river. Once again your outs are a huge consideration here, but mainly its because he can easily have an overpair.

[ActionStan]

Jeeze. You have a lot of hand against a button range. You're capped at a psb. I'm not sure how check/raise shove yield a positive result. You're 20% or so to fill up alone. He could easily be on JT,T9,T8,TT,AT and a few others. I'm not sure I get giving up on this when you're capped at the 250.

[ActionStan]

[ QUOTE ]
erg

actually this is a really tough spot.

i don't really know what you should do.

If he were 100bb, betfold would be the 100% best play.

With his stack though you are put in an extremely tough spot when he shoves because:

a. he may have JT or TT.
b. he MAYYYY have a pp with a spade AsA KsK or even 7s7 or something.
c. check your poker stove, you have almost 25% equity vs a flush, and you'd be getting like 2:1 on a push.


Honestly, I'm thinking this is a bet call. Theres probably value in a bet, and calling a shove is slightly neg ev at WORST.

As played.... i think you can probably c/c and c/f river. Once again your outs are a huge consideration here, but mainly its because he can easily have an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

what he said.

[holdem2000]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
erg

actually this is a really tough spot.

i don't really know what you should do.

If he were 100bb, betfold would be the 100% best play.

With his stack though you are put in an extremely tough spot when he shoves because:

a. he may have JT or TT.
b. he MAYYYY have a pp with a spade AsA KsK or even 7s7 or something.
c. check your poker stove, you have almost 25% equity vs a flush, and you'd be getting like 2:1 on a push.


Honestly, I'm thinking this is a bet call. Theres probably value in a bet, and calling a shove is slightly neg ev at WORST.

As played.... i think you can probably c/c and c/f river. Once again your outs are a huge consideration here, but mainly its because he can easily have an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

what he said.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT... except I don't know that b/f is 100% best play 100BBs deep, but it's probably good and that's a separate discussion.

[jetsetboy]

Nobody likes a c/rai ?

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody likes a c/rai ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is ok. I think this is pretty marginal in every direction really. Maybe 1/3 of each crai, b/c, c/f. I really don't know, but I'm pretty sure that you're going to be so close in equity to his range that it doesn't matter to much.

[ActionStan]

It's close, for sure. Personally, when it's close and there's a decent chance I have an equity edge I prefer to stick the money in and not outguess myself. Helps you image too, I think. Sort of the Travis Bickle thing. You could go off at any time.

[ActionStan]

GM,

So, 3 Qs, a J, 3 9s and 3 8s are outs against all of the draws that came in and are likely outs against any of the villains holdings, discounted a bit for chops. So thats around 25% equity right there.

It costs you $190 to get all in for a $520 pot. So, you need about 35-40% equity to break even. I think that it is reasonable to thing that the villain could have TT, QQ, JT pretty easily. It's certainly in the realm of possibilities that the villain has T9 or T8 some % of the time. I don't think it's beyond the pale that the villain could have AKo with a heart some small amount of the time. Some % of the time the villain is floating and bluffing with air and will flat out fold. I have a hard time believing all of this doesn't comfortably add up to 15% equity.

There are only a couple of hands, J9, AJ, 88, 99 and KJ that crush us.

Do you think I'm overestimating the villains range? It just doesn't feel like we're in terrible shape here with the villain being short. Yes? No? I'm full of crap?

[Renton]

if a crai is plus ev here, then betcalling ergo must be superior. (i.e. i highly doubt he just stabs with air here like ever)