2/4 I really wanna pick this off

[Mr_Donktastic]

he's also turning better prs than 9s into bluffs a reasonable amount of the time.

[CalledDownLight]

agreed

edit: but he has those much less often because of the pf play

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean he really has to have AA or a FH imo to be vbetting the river

[/ QUOTE ]
He's 24/9...

He could easily have like 54 suited or A4 suited, or 33, 44, etc...

[sharkbait0709]

I'm new to this forum so pardon me for any mistakes in posting, but here would be my thinking about villain's hand (given only info I have from the original post):

- AA/KK: less likely. He'd have pumped it up pre-flop, why let you catch up? He could wait and see with KK, but if so, he made a monster and why push on the river and chase a weak hand out? Would you do that?

- A4: less likely. Unless he had As4s, he'd have pushed strong on the turn, afraid of an overpair or flush draw to catch up.

- 33/44: less likely. same reasoning as KK.

- QQ-TT: more likely. his betting up to the turn could support these holdings, and his overbet on river may be a design to force you to fold a bigger pair but less than K and he still can beat 99-55. Notice he didn't get any stronger reaction from you on the turn.

- 88-55: more likely. same reasoning as QQ-TT but he definitely took a much greater risk and he must have a good read on you to really push it, given he could still win with a check if you just had air. So this is less likely than QQ-TT.

- AsXs: like As2s. His betting up to river could support this theory. Min raise/bet could scare you to fold but still give room for him to chase. Push on the river could be a move based on his read that your holding was weak and you are unlikely to call an all-in. Forgot to mention he could have As5s in this case too.

As it played out, my guess is you're in a very tough spot to call. Given the likely hands he was holding, you're 50/50. Yes?

[Sandmo]

Im guessing he had air on the flop, and hits his king with maybe KQs. Don't know, but wouldnt he re raise with AK and big pairs? And with a pocket + - 99 wouldnt he raise more on flop?

[D.L.M.]

[ QUOTE ]
he's also turning better prs than 9s into bluffs a reasonable amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best reason not to call

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
As it played out, my guess is you're in a very tough spot to call. Given the likely hands he was holding, you're 50/50. Yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were 50/50 then this would be a very easy call. Unfortunately, that's probably not the case here.

GM, I have no idea why you think this line looks like anything but a big hand, or at least something better than 99. Care to elaborate on why you really wanna pick this off? I'm sure you have a good reason, but I can't see it.

[Mike Kelley]

I remember renton posting a hand where he said 1/3 pot bet on the turn followed by a 6/5 overbet on the river = bluff I also see where he posted in this thread to fold it, so maybe the conditions are different?

[GiantBuddha]

Is it like he only bet enough on the turn to leave himself with a credible third barrel?

[Renton]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember renton posting a hand where he said 1/3 pot bet on the turn followed by a 6/5 overbet on the river = bluff I also see where he posted in this thread to fold it, so maybe the conditions are different?

[/ QUOTE ]

i probably had stronger aggression reads